More than three months have now passed since September 24, the day of the general elections in Germany. The period was characterized by debates and clashes and Chancellor Angela was the protagonist Merkel, arrived in her fourth term, engaged in the search for a political agreement for the creation of the so-called Grosse Coalition, political solution in government now since 2013.
The German situation is unstable. This is the longest political crisis experienced by the country since the Second World War until today, and the current stalemate cannot last much longer. The leaders of the two main parties, Angela Merkel and the social democrat Martin Schulz they will meet over the next five days to try to find a point of agreement. To most it seems like a reckoning: either a solution will be found or the way will be paved for new elections, with the hypothesis of a minority government that does not seem to find real confirmation.
To date, the German political scenario has not - fortunately - negatively influenced the performance of the markets to financethe. Political risk is becoming less and less important for the stock market, the strength of the economy outweighs the uncertainties. Confirming this here are the data relating to orders from German industries, which in November show growth of 8,7% on an annual basis, compared to +7,2% in October (revised from +6,9%). The figure is better than analysts' expectations, which remained at +7,8%.
The stated aim of the Chancellery is to re-create an alliance with the socialists of theSpd. Merkel hopes to reach the signing of formal negotiations for a government coalition in early April.
The big stumbling block is represented by Martin Schulz, leader of the social democrats and former president of the European Parliament. “We don't draw any red lines, but we want as many red policies as possible in Germany,” Schulz said. The SPD wants to get the most out of the negotiations, aware of its position: the Social Democrats represent the last resort for the formation of the new government.
However, Schulz will have to contend with the base of his party, very skeptical of the Grosse Koalition. The leader could ask Merkel to put some of the main political offices of the next government on the table, with that of the Minister of Finance. The collapse of the SPD consensus in the last elections (20% of the votes, worst result in the last seventy years) had been attributed by the party precisely to the alliance with Merkel.
The nodes of the agreement are immigration, tax policies e policies for the public investments. The September elections warned Angela Merkel, who won the party's worst result since the war, leaving ground for the xenophobic right di AfD. Precisely for this reason, some political commentators are expecting a change of course by the CDU towards a tougher position on the issue of immigration; among the potential ideas there is also a reduction in economic subsidies for those seeking political asylum or the imposition of checks on migrants who declare themselves minors upon entering Germany.
The achievement of an agreement for the coalition is hindered not only by the parties hostile to the SPD and the CDU, but there are also problems within them.
In the autumn the Bavaria will go to the polls for the renewal of the regional government and the csu, main allies of the Cdu, intends to continue its hard line on immigration policies. Party leader Horst Seehofer in recent weeks he has met several times with the much-discussed Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, long-time political enemy of Angela Merkel.
Until today the situation is maintained by the President of the Republic, Frank Walter Steinmeier, who assumed the role of mediator after the failed agreement between the SPD, the Greens and the liberals of the FDP, the so-called Coalition Jamaica. It was November 20, and that day Angela Merkel declared that she wanted to close the doors to any new consultation. However, returning to the polls is a solution that the German head of state does not want to consider.
The parties involved seem to row in the same direction: whether it is a necessary agreement for the stability and future of Germany, as Merkel claims, or simply an "acceptable" choice to curb the advent of extremists or new figures in the German political environment, this is not known. A change at the helm of Germany after these three and a half months of stalemate would be a serious blow to the European economic and political balance.
All, in words, seem certain that in the end a coalition agreement between CDU-CSU and SPD will be found. To know the next scenarios, just wait a week.
STEP FORWARD
At the end of the first day of talks, which began on Sunday, optimism seeps from the parties. In fact, it seems that the CDU and the SPD have reached an agreement to lighten taxes on the highest incomes. We recall that the issue of less pressing taxation was one of the electoral promises of Merkel and of the entire Conservative Party in the months preceding the elections
