In 1983 the leader of the Bavarian Christian Socialists Franz-Joseph Strauß warned his party: A party must not arise on the right of the CSU! At the time it was the Republicans who represented a possible alternative to the Union (CDU/CSU) on the right side of the constitutional arc. The story turned out differently. The Republicans have never really taken root and the Christian Social Democrats have never had to contend with a real party to their right. In the meantime the Verdi were born first, at the end of the XNUMXs, and then the Linke, in the XNUMXs. But always on the left side.
With alternative for Germany, a party founded in April 2013 at the InterContinental Hotel in Berlin, Strauß's dictum has become a bare theorem. Today German politics has seen the birth of a conservative, liberal-national and Eurosceptic party to the right of the Union (CDU/CSU).
If the danger of a substantial transfer of votes from the Union ad alternative for Germany, in the last European elections last Sunday, also helped by the absence of a threshold, the German neo-right achieved a considerable 7,1 percent of the votes. With no less than seven MEPs, the party led by the Protestant Bernd Lucke enters the institutions for the first time and it is very probable that as early as September, in the next elections in three Länder of the former East Germany (Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg) it will also be able to take root in regional level.
As commented Cicero magazine, Angela Merkel's Union now has a problem. alternative for Germany it could become what Linke is for the Social Democrats (SPD): a party to the right of the CDU/CSU with which one prefers not to collaborate but which at the same time, on the conservative front, erodes the votes essential to be able to govern. Just as during the Schröder era, in which the most "extreme" electorate of the Social Democrats no longer felt represented by the red-green government of Agenda 2010, so in the Merkel era the conservatives no longer saw their values defended of reference in the process of radical modernization carried out by the chancellor.
The leader Bernd Lucke represents the disappointed ex-unionists who have never understood why just when the Union (CDU/CSU) and the liberals (FDP) governed together (from 2009 to 2013) Germany became more environmentalist , more feminine and leftist: abolition of military service, abandonment of nuclear energy and possible introduction of women's quotas. Thus a no man's land was created that the conservatives of alternative for Germany they knew how to occupy. Added to this is the questionable management of the Euro crisis by Angela Merkel who in Germany has led to the same position of great entrepreneurs, professors and economists who have always been skeptical of the single currency.
The strategy of Christian Democrats and social towards alternative for Germany it is twofold. Merkel's line is one of silence, she simply ignores them. But there are also those who do not give up attacking the new party accusing it of being far-right with theses very close to National demokratische Partei Deutschland (NPD) – as demonstrated by some very similar voter posters between the two parties. According to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, President of Saarland, the racist tendencies of alternative for Germany become increasingly evident and the party is now at the limit of constitutionality. For Stanislaw Tillich, President of Saxony, alternative for Germany it is a populist party whose anti-European rhetoric differs little from that of the NPD. On partially different location it lies Peter Gauwailer (CSU), according to which a party cannot speak to everyone, but must look to represent the interests of its people. The Union must be able to maintain the consensus of the most conservative electorate.
The accusation ad alternative for Germany to be a party also seeking the votes of the extreme right is not new. It already happened during the last political elections last September. However, the leader of the Eurosceptics Bernd Lucke has always ruled out any collaboration with the European populists. In short, in the European Parliament he will not join Le Pen and Wilders. The discourse of a possible alliance with Nigel Farage is different, for now denied, but not yet completely excluded.
To understand what impact it can have alternative for Germany in the geography of parties in Germany, the question of the flow of votes remains. At the last federal election the eurosceptics had eroded votes mainly to the liberals of the FDP (430 votes) and, surprisingly, to the extreme left of the Linke (340). Most of the remaining votes came mainly from the CDU (290), the SPD (180), the Greens (90) and those who had previously abstained. alternative for Germany he had collected a total of just over two million votes, exactly 2.056.985, corresponding to 4,7 percent and insufficient to pass the barrier of 5 to enter the Bundestag.
The flow of votes in the European elections is very different where alternative for Germany it gained 510 votes from the CDU/CSU, 180 votes from the SPD, 110 votes from the Linke, only 60 from the liberals of the FDP and 30 from the Greens. Once again, however, the total number of votes stopped at just over two million votes: 2.065.162 (7,1 percent). In reality, the most interesting aspect of these numbers is the comparison between the absolute data of the votes of the last federal elections and the European ones, the only two elections in which the eurosceptic party participated. alternative for Germany he boosted his votes by just 8.177 votes. This means that the consensus of the Eurosceptics has remained substantially unchanged, but has only grown in percentage due to the high abstention rate. In Germany, it is true that turnout increased from 43,3 to 48,1 compared to 2009, but it is also true that compared to the last federal elections, in which 71,5 percent voted, it was low.
alternative for Germany it has not increased its electorate, it has merely consolidated it. Whether this will be enough to allow German Eurosceptics to establish themselves definitively in the geography of German parties is by no means obvious. The road to being a stable party on the right of the Union is still very long.
