How many emotions in the session at the beginning of the week. The great duel on the Generali between Banca Intesa and Mediobanca with a lot of the twist with the closed Stock Exchange kept the tension high in Piazza Affari. And this morning it continues to make itself heard: the best stocks of the Ftse Mib are those of Generali (+8%) and Mediobanca (+7,5%), while Intesa Sanpaolo travels at the bottom of the list (-3,6%). Meanwhile, the flurry of announcements arriving from the White House has caused an adrenaline overdose on Wall Street and beyond. But the effect, for now, is more bewilderment than enthusiasm.
But let's go in order. Yesterday evening Generali announced the purchase of 3,01% of the voting rights of Intesa San Paolo through a securities loan. The company thus demonstrates that it has taken the rumors about the bank's interest in the Leone very seriously, yesterday in sharp growth in Piazza Affari on the wave of the press scoop according to which Intesa was interested in joining Generali up to just below the threshold takeover bid of 25% to avoid a French axis (Axa- Mediobanca- Unicredit) at the head of the first Italian company.
Before the epilogue, the market had rewarded Generali and "punished" Intesa since the morning: the Trieste-based company gained 3,94% (with a maximum of up to 7%) with trades more than four times the monthly average; Intesa lost 2,91% with volumes slightly above the average in a banking environment that was still weak. Banca Generali is also following, +6,11%.
ALLIANZ ALLIED WITH CA' DE SASS, MINALI TOWARDS EXIT FROM THE LION
Last night's move probably thwarted any takeover in Trieste. According to the TUF, in fact, in the case of reciprocal shareholdings, those who exceed the 3% limit second will have their voting rights frozen beyond this threshold and must sell the excess quota within 12 months. Any Chemistry move at this point has its weapons blunt. The only possibility envisaged by the TUF is to launch a takeover bid or public offer on at least 60%, an operation which, at current stock market values, could be worth over 12 billion, in any case within the reach of the bank led by Carlo Messina.
Intesa's objective, which will hold the board meeting this week, would be the establishment of a bancassurance pole in Italy by combining the activities of Generali with those of Intesa Sanpaolo Vita, at the same time transferring the activities outside Italy to other operators such as Allianz or Axa. Tomorrow the board of directors of Generali will also be held: the resignation of general manager Alberto Minali is on the agenda.
We will see this morning whether Generali's move has compromised the projects of Intesa or whether a decisive billion-dollar battle for the financial equilibrium of the Bel Paese is looming.
TRUMP PROMISES MORE TAX CUTS
Cyclone Trump has come into action. Yesterday the new president withdrew the United States from the TPP, the trade agreement that brings together 12 Asian and American countries. “A suicidal move – commented Senator John McCain – which opens the door to Beijing's influence”. China announced yesterday that the Aiib, the bank for investment in infrastructure promoted by China, has now reached 25 members. Trump also reaffirmed his willingness to renegotiate the NAFTA agreements with Mexico and Canada as soon as possible. Then, meeting a large delegation of entrepreneurs, he repeated his desire to proceed quickly with the "fiscal revolution": low rates for those who work in the US, a drain on those who import goods from abroad.
Today the tour de force will extend to the automotive world: the leaders of Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler will be received at the White House, naturally represented by Sergio Marchionne. A lot of activism, in truth, has left the market cold: the time for promises is over.
MNUCHIN (DARLING): STRONG DOLLAR MAY BE IN HARM
Asian markets have absorbed Trump's protectionist bones without major shocks. After yesterday's sharp slide (-1,2%) the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropped 0,1%. The comforting data on industrial production arriving from the PMI index limited the damage. Hong Kong is on positive ground.
The dollar was more stable, however, down for seven consecutive sessions. The euro rose to 1,076 against the US currency, from 1,070. The dollar yesterday lost 1,7% against the yen. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said tonight that a strong dollar could be bad for the US economy. The US stocks are in the red: the Dow Jones loses 0,14%, S&P500 -027%. The Nasdaq was almost flat (-0,04%).
Qualcomm's sharp decline (-12,7%) after the announcement of the lawsuit brought by Apple against the chip supplier weighs on the list. General Electric lost 2,2%, McDonald's -0,7%% despite a quarterly with revenues and profits above estimates. Instead, the accounts of Yahoo! are better than forecasts, post-market growth of 1,2%. The company has confirmed that the sale to Verizon will be completed in the second quarter.
A federal court has blocked the $37 billion merger between the two health insurance companies Aetna and Humana. The judge agreed with the competent antitrust authorities who had complained that the integration would threaten competition in the sector.
Oil prices recovered this morning: Brent at 55,49 dollars (+0,5%), Wti at 53 dollars. However, the Energy index fell (-1,1%), the worst yesterday. Halliburton's loss in the quarter (-2,9%), worse than expected, weighed on the sector. Exxon (-0,9%). Eni (-1,5%), Saipem (-1,2%) and Tenaris (-1,2%) were weak in Piazza Affari.
EUROPE IN COURT: BREXIT AND ITALICUM AT BARRIER
Day of declines for the European stock exchanges, with investors who find themselves looking at the future with concern after the first moves of President Trump. Today the Consulta begins the examination of appeals against the new electoral law, the Italicum.
Tech stocks (Stoxx -1,1%) and banks (-1,2%) and banks (-1,3%) are in decline. Oil stocks are also down (-0,78%). The Milan Stock Exchange is weak, despite the lightning conflict over Generali. The Ftse Mib index closed the session recording -19.328% at 0,6 points, worsening in the last part of the session. Paris (-0,7%) was also down, Frankfurt (-0,8%) was worse Madrid (-0,7%) London also down (-XNUMX%).
Theresa May, who will meet Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, announced an upcoming meeting with Chinese premier Xi Jingping. Meanwhile, the verdict of the High Court is expected today on the government's appeal against the obligation to precede Brexit with a vote in Parliament
Eurozone governments have unblocked short-term debt relief for Greece, according to a note from the European Stability Mechanism ESM The decision paves the way for a decline in Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio and a reduction in financing needs gross.
TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY. HIGHEST SPREAD WITH MADRID SINCE 2012
On the bond market, after a flare up to 2,06%, the highest in the last six weeks, the rate on the ten-year December 2026 closed the session just above 2%. The spread with the Bund stood at 170 basis points after reaching 173, the highest since 12 December.
The spread vis-à-vis Spain has worsened quite visibly again: the Btp/Bono gap has risen to 57 cents, the highest since February 2012. On the occasion of the placement next Thursday, 26 January, the Ministry of the Economy will offer between 2 and 2,5 billion euro of Ctz 28 December 2018 and from 0,5 to one billion dl indexed Btp.
BANKS, ONLY CREVAL FLYS, UNICREDIT SLIDES
Banks in Europe are weak (-1,2%), Italy is worse (-2,3%). The exception is Creval (+ 2,3%) on the merger hypothesis with Bper (-2,3%). The operation could also involve Unipol (+1,6%).
Unicredit sold approximately 2,8% on the day on which the reverse stock split took effect. Bpm also decreased (-2,8%). The Lisippo association, one of the points of reference for the institute's retired members, challenged the outcome of the extraordinary meeting of 15 October last, which gave the green light to the merger with Banco Popolare and the birth of Banco Bpm Spa.
ENEL RECOVERS THE COUPON. PARMALAT, TAKEOVER OFFER STOPPED UNTIL FEBRUARY 8
Enel closed at 4,084 euros, after detaching a dividend of 0,09 euros today. The variation adjusted for the detachment is +0,8%. Well the automotive. Fiat Chrysler +1,6%, Cnh and Brembo up by about half a percentage point. Telecom Italia -0,7% despite the promotion of the American broker Raymond James to Strong Buy.
In luxury, Ferragamo +1,1%, Yoox +0,9% and Luxottica -2,1%. Consob has suspended the deadlines for examining the document of the Opa Lactalis on Parmalat to gather more information on the ongoing disputes, in particular with Citigroup. The Commission will have until 8 February to give an answer.
