The week of central banks (17 institutions will meet) starts on the upside, in the wake of the record close on Wall Street on Friday. The attitude of the Asian giants contributes to supporting the march of the Bull.
In Tokyo (+1%), while waiting for the BoJ meeting, positive signals are coming from Tankan, the thermometer of the third largest economy on the planet: the index is based on forecasts and rises, even if the increase in costs linked to to raw materials.
The indications arriving from Beijing were more decisive. The authorities, after months of interventions aimed at moderating, controlling and contrasting excesses, have announced that the time has come to return to supporting the economy, so that there are no slowdowns and jolts. This happened in a meeting of the Central Labor Conference, where the watchword that emerged for 2022 is "Stability". According to the Xinhua news agency, each region will have to commit itself to the recovery of growth, threatened by the drop in demand and by the difficulties in guaranteeing adequate supply.
The lists already recorded the upward thrust this morning. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is up 1,2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gains 1%, Hang Seng Tech shines (+1,4%): Alibaba +3,3%, Tencent +2,5%, Bilibili +2%. However, the real estate sector does not recover, with Evergrande.
DOLLAR LITTLE MOVEMENT, OIL ACCELERATES
Wall Street futures are up after the best week in nine months of the S&P 500 index.
The dollar moved little at the start of the Federal Open Market week. The jump in inflation signaled by Friday's data did not cause equities to jolt as market rates remained quiet.
The 1,49-year Treasury Note trades at a 1,129% yield. Euro dollar at XNUMX.
WTI-type oil is up 1,5% to $72,8 a barrel. Brent is trading at $75,99 a barrel. Bitcoin loses 2%, to $48.900.
POWELL TOWARDS PURCHASING CUTS, RATES UP IN JUNE
Inflation accelerates, central banks respond. As usual, it will be up to the Fed to draw the line: on Wednesday evening, at the end of the board meeting, this Jerome Powell will announce the forthcoming start of tapering, with the aim of zeroing the purchases on the Central Bank market by March. But traders at this point are already focused on the turning point: the first rate hike, a modest quarter of a point, is expected in June.
“In any case, at the beginning of 2022 there will still be ample availability of low-cost liquidity”, is Allianz's forecast. This perspective should support investors' appetite for risk. “At the same time – reads a note from the insurance giant – we see an increased risk of persistent inflationary pressures, in the wake of excessive growth in the money supply and structural factors such as deglobalisation, population aging and the fight against climate change. Inflation will remain under special surveillance for some time to come”.
ALL THE SPOTLIGHT ON THE ECB: PEPP CLOSES
The Fed meeting opens a busy week for the money lords. Thursday it will be Christine Lagarde's turn to announce the start of the end of extraordinary anti-pandemic interventions. The Pepp purchases should end in March: for the aftermath a system is being studied to avoid trauma to the detriment of Greece (excluded from the other interventions) and Italy, which is under pressure again. The increase in the spread indicates the nervousness of the financial markets on the eve of the choice for the Quirinale.
JOIN 17 CENTRAL BANKS: CURIOSITIES ABOUT TURKEY
But the tour of central banks doesn't end there. In addition to the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will take the field: Hungary, Chile, Indonesia, Switzerland, Norway, Mexico and Russia, without neglecting the most exciting, Turkey which could insist on yet another rate cut against the trend with the rest of the planet. The outcome of the Bank of England meeting is uncertain, even if the old lady should renounce the increase announced several times.
BUYBACK RECORDS IN USA
Wall Street has so far reacted positively to the trend of rising real rates in anticipation of closing a historic year: the S&P 25 +500% since January, after 67 closings at the highest. But the response of the lists, oriented towards the Christmas rally, is also linked to the record of buybacks on the Stock Exchange by the companies: in the third quarter, notes the Wall Street Journal, buybacks rose to $234,6 billion, a new all-time high.
SPOTLIGHT ON IFO AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
There will be no shortage of important macro data. The EU will announce October's seasonally adjusted industrial production data tomorrow. In the US, on the other hand, there is expectation for the Nfib index of SMEs and for the index of producer prices for November. Again in the Old Continent, the German manufacturing and services index will be released on Wednesday; to follow, that of the EU manufacturing in December and that of European services in December.
The US expects the new requests for unemployment benefits for the week of 11 December, that of new housing constructions and building permits for November, industrial production for November, the PMI manufacturing and services index for December, the index Philadelphia Fed Index and the December Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index.
Finally, the Ifo index on German business confidence in December will be released on Friday, which was 96,5% in the previous survey. But the most eagerly awaited figure is that of German inflation in November, given that the latest figure recorded a jump in the cost of living of 4,9%.
GENERALI: THE DONNET PLAN
The corporate calendar includes two appointments of great importance for the finances of the Bel Paese. The CEO of Generali, Philippe Donnet, will present his new 2022/2024 business plan to the financial community on Wednesday. The strategy will focus on three growth directions: digital and information technology, asset management and highly profitable insurance markets, such as India, where the Lion is negotiating to increase its weight in Future Group, but also Asia in general and the USA.
Meanwhile, the Caltagirone-Del Vecchio-fondazione Crt trio has reached 15,5% for now, with the intention of challenging Mediobanca's leadership. On a strategic level, only the indication of a counter program based on the valorisation of Banca Generali filters through.
TELECOM, POSSIBLE NEW WARNING
Another key appointment: the Telecom Italia board of directors, probably the last act of the bitter conflict with the former CEO Luigi Gubitosi. A third profit warning is not excluded in the face of the bleak results of the agreement with Dazn that the future CEO Pietro Labriola will have to try to correct. This morning, the third tranche of the STM coupon (0,06 dollars) will be detached.
