Barring unpredictable twists and turns, board list, supported by Mediobanca and De Agostini and led by CEO Philippe Donnet, he will win the general meeting which opens in a few hours in Trieste but takes place remotely in compliance with the anti-Covid rules. To favor the success of Donnet, who will thus receive the third term to lead the largest Italian insurance company, there are two fundamental elements: the strong participation in the vote of the shareholders, which is expected to break a record high of 70% versus 55% last time out, and the orientation of most institutional funds (above all the international ones, which - also by virtue of the advice of proxy agencies - trust more the results already achieved by Donnet than the attractive ambitions of the challengers).
In the new board Donnet will gather 10 members and Caltagirone 3
Donnet is therefore in pole position and, if re-elected, will proceed quickly towards the implementation of the new business plan, presented at the end of last year and somewhat obscured so far by the very hard battle between the two teams. On the way he will find though a blocking minority of around 30%., composed by Caltagirone, Del Vecchio, Benetton, Seragnoli, Minozzi, Forensic Fund e some banking foundations which will be able to veto extraordinary operations and will battle its management.
If the new board will still consist of 13 members, the list of the Board should collect 10 and Caltagirone and partners they would have 3. It doesn't seem like the third list, that of Assogestioni, manages to exceed 5% - it is credited with 2% - and therefore will not have representatives on the board.
Will Del Vecchio and Caltagirone seek revenge in Mediobanca?
The question that dominates the financial community is now another: Caltagirone and Del Vecchio will seek revenge in Mediobanca, guilty in their eyes of having supported the list of the outgoing Generali board of directors and of having favored the confirmation of Donnet? It has been talked about for some time, also because Caltagirone and Del Vecchio (who has sworn eternal opposition to Alberto Nagel, the CEO of Mediobanca, for the old controversy over the IEO) have significant stakes in the capital of the Piazzetta Cuccia institute: Del Vecchio has invested a lot of money and is the first shareholder of Mediobanca with the 19,4% and Caltagirone has the 5%. Not to mention the Benettons, which have 2,1% but also an ambivalent relationship with Mediobanca (opposite Trieste but on the same front in the Atlantia takeover bid).
But in Mediobanca's shareholding structure - a bit like in Generali - foreign funds have 40% and have always supported Nagel's leadership. After the lesson in Trieste, therefore, Del Vecchio and Caltagirone will think twice before starting the final battle in Piazzetta Cuccia. Either they invest more money and further strengthen their shareholdings, or the conquest of Mediobanca risks proving to be problematic.
