“Welcome to Britain” headlines today the Economist to summarize the political-economic turbulence that the United Kingdom has been experiencing in recent weeks, increasingly similar - if not worse - to those seen in Italy in recent decades. Day after day, in fact, the situation of the Prime Minister of Liz Truss who is strenuously trying to resist the crossfire that comes from the opposition, but above all from the conservative majority after the unfortunate tax reform announced on 23 September and then cancelled which seriously threatened to crash the British economy, causing the pound to collapse, causing interest rates on government bonds to soar and bringing pension funds to the brink of default.
For many, the Premier League now has hours to spare and it is not even said that it will arrive at the traditional Christmas toast that takes place every year in Downing Street. What happened yesterday, on the other hand, only confirms this thesis. In just one day, Truss was forced to replace her interior minister, Suella Braverman, considered a close ally, to then witness what was happening in the House of Commons, where the Government seriously risked being defeated in a vote on fracking which Truss had defined as a "vote of confidence".
Braverman resignation: why did Interior Minister GB resign?
The now former interior minister, Suella Braverman, was considered a hawk, belonging to the most radical branch of the Conservative party. In the past weeks she had made the front pages of newspapers around the world for having spoken out against the proposal for a trade agreement with India, but also for some of her statements, which to define as controversial is an understatement, in which she said: "I would like to to see a front page of the Telegraph with a plane taking off for Rwanda, that's my dream, it's my obsession”. The reference was to the Johnson Government's criticized migration policy which requires Britain to force some asylum-seeking migrants to leave the country and fly to Rwanda.
Le Minister Braverman resigns have arrived, officially, to have violated government regulationsby sending an email to a parliamentarian containing an official government document. Too bad that, in his farewell letter, Braverman she did not limit herself to greetings and admit that she had made a "mistake", but defined the government as "inept and inadequate".
Braverman shares a record with former Economy Minister Kwasi Kwarteng: in office 43 days, his was the shortest term as Interior Minister in the last 188 years.
Braverman will be replaced at the helm of the Interior Ministry Grant Shapps, former Minister of Transport in the Johnson Government, moderate exponent of the Conservative Party, as well as supporter of rival Rishi Sunak.
Thus, within a single week, Trussing has lost two of his close allies, sacrificing them on the altar of Realpolitik, in an attempt to remain anchored to an armchair, that of Prime Minister, which becomes more and more shaky day by day.
The vote on fracking
Yes, because if the resignation of another important minister hadn't been enough, the icing on the cake on a very difficult day for the British premier came fracking vote in the House of Commons.
Fracking in the UK has been banned since 2019, but the Government would like to reintroduce it in a bid to resolve the gas crisis. Labor, by contrast, had tabled a motion to extend the ban. To put pressure on his MPs to vote against it, Truss therefore said that last night's vote on the motion would be a sort of “vote of confidence in the government”. How did it end? The motion was rejected with 326 votes against and 230 in favor, but 40 deputies of the Conservative party they chose not to vote. Immediately afterwards, several members of the same party called for Truss's resignation, but he replied by promising an exemplary "punishment" for the 40 MPs who did not participate in the vote.
Inflation skyrocketing and the pound down
While the political turmoil continues, the economic situation is also far from simple. Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced that inflation in the United Kingdom, in September, it reached the highest peak in the last 40 years, reaching 10.1%. Il is also up sharply core annual rate, which does not take into account energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to a record 6,5%. Data which, in addition to pushing the value of the GBP, brought the Gilt yield ten-year period above 4%. In parallel bread, cereals, meat and dairy products increased by 14,5% compared to last year.
There are therefore more and more analysts who predict that, by March 2023, the Bank of England will bring i rates around 5,5%, making the UK the country with the highest official rates among developed countries.
