It's in a climate of general uncertainty and confusion which ends this 2023 which has seen the global crisis areas present in the world increase and worsen. After conflict between Russia and Ukraine which has been dragging on for almost 2 years without any glimmer of a solution, in October, to set the Middle East on fire, theterrorist attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 and the Israeli military response which has already left 21 thousand Palestinians on the ground.
Lastly, it Yemen with the Islamic Huthi militiamen who, manipulated by Iran and Russia, are creating problems for international commercial traffic in the Red Sea and access to the Suez Canal.
If we add to these crises the unresolved wars in Niger and Myanmar we have a worrying picture to say the least in the areas of instability. The risk of contagion remains around the corner.
The Middle Eastern front
If a sort of "proxy war" is being fought in Ukraine with Western weapons and means on the one hand and military aid from Iran, North Korea (and probably China) on the other, the worsening of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis has for now limited the domino effect to limited incursions on the border with Lebanon and in Syria against Hezbollah. L'Iran supports the attack on Israeli settlements in Gaza. He even tries in some way to claim the paternity of the October 7 attack (immediately denied, however, by Hamas) but appears well aware of the risks he runs in dramatizing and widening the area of conflict. The two American mega-aircraft carriers Ford and Eisenhower are off the Israeli coast ready to go into action if the situation requires it.
The Ukrainian front
On the Ukrainian front, the Russian army is attempting a series of attacks against the lines of Kiev's forces. Zelensky is struggling to control the entire Dnieper river front in the East despite the announced counteroffensive which is slow to show its effects and despite the early start of operations of the F16s and the long-range Atacms missile systems.
For now the only good news that President Zelenskyj can sell as a success to the Ukrainians is the start of negotiations for Kiev's accession to the EU despite Hungary's veto which chilled enthusiasm by vetoing a new 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine.
76 countries up for elections in 2024
However, 2024 could reserve some hopefully positive surprises. It will be the year with most elections ever: 76 countries representing the 60% of global GDP and a population of over 2 billion people. But if some elections already have a obvious outcome like the Russian ones that they will lead again in March Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, the greatest attention inevitably focuses on the outcome of the challenge in the United States between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November.
Already in June there is a lot of anticipation also for theoutcome of the European elections which will call 400 million voters to the polls in the 27 member states. Voting will also be held in Taiwan, Iran, Portugal, India and the United Kingdom in 2024. It is no mystery that the attention of observers is entirely focused on Washington and Brussels.
A greater role for the United States and the European Union in the Ukrainian and Gaza crises is called for by many parties but so far they have never gone beyond generic appeals to resolve the serious humanitarian crisis in Gaza and to find a way forward possible exit from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The rise of the Global South
It almost seems that Washington and Brussels remain condemned to a progressive irrelevance in the resolution of the problems major global crises while the activism and role of the Gulf monarchies (first and foremost Qatar) and Egypt as recognized mediators for a ceasefire that allows the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners is growing.
More generally it is the so-called global south in the new and broader meaning it seems take on a growing role no longer just for the progressive increase in the world GDP it produces (while that of the old G7 is decreasing) but for the increasingly marked political depth and for unprecedented alliances that seem possible such as the one between Indonesia and India which would put aside any possible religious conflict.
As he recently noted Guido Bolaffi for Fondazione Leonardo “The Global South is destined to be not an appearance but an actor in future global economic balances and in the great transformation that is redesigning international political geography”. This is why, according to Bolaffi, it is reductive, if not downright wrong, to argue that the countries of the Global South are reticent to take a position, for example, on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
