Without a shadow of a doubt it is stop of Russian gas in Poland and Bulgaria it opened a huge gap for the escalation of the gas war between Moscow and the Old Continent. Now it's a question of understanding if and when, the closure of the Russian methane taps will extend to other European countries, especially to the two most dependent nations: Germany e Italy. In Europe we are wondering who will be the next country to find itself at the crossroads, whether to accept the double current account system at Gazprombank offered by Putin, on his terms, or whether to stop payments, with all the risks involved such as the suspension of supplies.
It is "unacceptable". These are the first words of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, on the decision of the Russian energy giant to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. "It is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as a tool for blackmail," commented von der Leyen, adding that Russia has proved to be an unreliable supplier. "But we are prepared", continued the number one of the European Commission and that the Member States are in close contact to "guarantee alternative supplies and the best possible storage levels throughout the EU".
Stop Russian gas, whose turn is it? Moscow's propaganda move
As reported by Bloomberg, which cites Russian sources, four European buyers have already paid for Gazprom's gas in rubles and another 10 have opened a double account and Eni is ready to do so for Italy, the energy giant said Russian. The six-legged dog hasn't commented yet, but the truth will emerge in mid-May when the next payments are due. For the moment, as confirmed by Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, gas supplies from Russia are "regular".
A move, that of Moscow, to say that Europe is split but above all to increase the price of gas even further, back in the 120 euro area after the stop to the two countries. But after all, the indications that arrived last week from Brussels still left companies free to negotiate payment methods with the Russian giant, always in compliance with the sanctions.
But what can our country actually do in the face of this real threat? The Italian government has been working since the beginning of the conflict to reduce imports from Moscow, but whether it will be able to step on the accelerator and move forward in the event of a sudden stop of Russian gas is a completely different story.
What can Italy do without gas from Moscow?
One of the first measures to stop the blockage on Russian gas supplies would be the reactivation of some coal-fired power plants. the Council of Ministers, which was to meet at the end of the week, will approve the increase in coal production on Monday 2 May, immediately bringing the Brindisi, Civitavecchia, Fusina and Monfalcone plants up to speed. A measure that would save about 3 billion cubic meters of gas.
The first move taken by the government, regarding the diversification of energy sources, is giving good results with the new agreements aimed at enhancing the flow from Azerbaijan (for 2,5 billion cubic meters), from Algeria for 9 billion (but from 2023) and with new volumes of liquefied natural gas from Angola, Congo, Mozambique, Qatar and the United States. However, it will be necessary to expand our regasification capacity with two new floating vessels, and with the current plants, now at 50% of their capacity.
But focusing on African gas is not realistic, at least in the short term, as it would take time and investment to get it. And not even on the LNG promised by the USA, given its cost and our current regasification capacity. And precisely during the Council of Ministers on Monday, the government will give "a major breakthrough in the construction of regasification terminals, approving interventions for a simplification of the rules relating to their construction, with the presidents of the Region extraordinary commissioners of the works". This was stated by the Minister of Regional Affairs, Mariastella Gelmini at the Unindustria assembly.
More effective short-term measures for the storage filling. The Italian authority for energy and networks, Arera, has approved "emergency measures to encourage the filling of storage" in order to fill "at least 90% of national stocks" in view of the winter, precisely in the case Russian supplies cut off. Arera has also approved "further measures to encourage the use of the regasification capacity available at the national terminals" where the imports of liquid gas arriving by ship will be conveyed.
Among the other measures envisaged by the government are the simplifications for the installation of plants powered by renewables and measures for contain consumption. Precisely what Italians have been wondering for months, namely whether the blockade of Russian gas supplies could lead to a rationing of consumption. It is possible, even if the government is studying other strategies - such as those mentioned above - to protect families and businesses. However, there has already been a first squeeze on air conditioners and heating of public offices with the aim of cutting gas consumption by around 4 billion cubic meters by the end of the year, but it is still unclear who will bear the burden of controls and whether this rationing will eventually touch households and businesses with tighter roofs.
