Il gas and the vulnerability of our energy system remain in the spotlight for 2022 but, even more so, for 2023. The last Brief of Cdp (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti) which analyzes the movement of gas prices and lays bare the potential threats in view of the arrival of the colder season, identifying possible short and medium-long term solutions. According to the study, 45% of energy operators risk closing at a loss. Furthermore, Fabio Panetta, member of the executive council of the ECB, underlined in Milan that the rise in inflation is not only due to the war. "At the base - he said speaking at an ISPI conference - there is price manipulation by Russia".
Gas: Italy vulnerable, watch out for stocks
In the summer months, the price of gas in Europe reached record levels compared to the last fifty years and even now that it has fallen to ten times above pre-pandemic levels. Italy is very vulnerable to these fluctuations - observe the Cdp researchers - due to the greater incidence of imported gas both in the production of electricity (45% against an EU average of 18%) and for direct consumption by businesses and households (29% compared with 16% in Europe). Not to mention that more than half of household and business users in our country are contractually exposed to the volatility of energy prices.
According to the experts, there are two factors to be carefully monitored: the financial statements of energy companies and end users and the need to increasingly resort to storage. Under the first aspect, it is believed that the higher gas procurement costs may have an impact on the profitability of energy operators and strike a 45% of businesses lost of the industry this year. Also the increase in arrears of users, caused by the doubling of bill costs, could have a negative impact. The second point of attention concerns the trend of storages before the end of winter, since the blockage of Russian supplies, in the absence of a reduction in consumption, would force Italy to make a dent in the share of strategic reserves.
Again according to CDP, the extraordinary measures prepared by the EU to counter the effects of the energy crisis prepared are not able by themselves to have a decisive impact on the higher costs incurred by the Italian economic system. It would then be necessary to add a coordinated intervention onthe gas price cap and, in the meantime, carry forward the strategies of diversification of supplies and the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels.
