Gas will remain central, despite the crisis, geopolitical tensions and the strong competition from renewables, to satisfy the need for energy. This is what emerges from the report of the research area of Monte dei Paschi di Siena Bank which underlines how the production and transport of natural gas from the countries of origin to the consuming countries have grown over the last decade by more than 28%.
In the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena report, the emphasis is placed on the ease of transporting natural gas by pipeline and by sea after a low-temperature liquefaction process. The overall network of global gas pipelines now extends for almost 900 kilometers and the global LNG trade now amounts to 250 million tonnes, approximately doubled from 10 years ago.
In the last decade the gas market has changed radically with the impetuous arrival of United States that with the discovery of the 'shale gas' and its exploitation through fracking technology has become the world's leading producer with 687 billion cubic meters of gas in 2013. An extraction method which, as underlined in the report, can cause a decrease in the internal pressure of the earth's crust with dangers for buildings which would be affected by the lowering of the surface.
The very high American production has generated an increase in competition between the producing countries and downward pressure on the price of gas especially in the USA, while worldwide the MPS-WGI index (World Gas Index) shows stable prices during the last 3 years after the 2008 peak and subsequent slump.
As for the'Italy, the relative importance of the consumption of natural gas compared to other sources of energy is even more significant because it amounts to 34 per cent of the total or about 70 billion cubic metres. However, from 2008 to today, the crisis has had a heavy impact, causing a marked drop in energy consumption and therefore also in natural gas, which has decreased by about 20% compared to the peak of 86 billion cubic meters in 2005. The forecasts breakthrough of the fateful ceiling of 100 billion cubic meters at the end of the decade formulated by major operators in the sector will therefore very difficult to achieve. The Gas also suffered acompetition from alternative energies in electricity generation; in this particular sector, natural gas consumption has dropped by as much as 37% compared to the 2008 peak.
The Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena report also illustrates Italy's supply structure from abroad through the four important gas pipelines Transmed, Greenstream, Trans Austria Gasleitung and Transitgas. The new TAP project should also be added to these.
But where does the gas we import come from? Russian gas plays an extremely important role in our supplies with 30,5% of the total quantity imported, but a much greater quantity arrives in Italy from Algeria alone, equal to 33,8%.
Given the current geopolitical framework, given the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, if we consider that there are many supply lines through pipelines and that LNG imports are still very low (3 per cent of the total), the our country – concludes the report – seems to be in an excellent position from which it could perhaps tolerate a possible situation of quotas for Russian supplies with less difficulty.
Attachments: NATURAL GAS December 2014 .pdf
