The G20 in Hamburg kicks off today, the summit between the leaders of the 19 most industrialized countries in the world (with the exception of Spain, the Netherlands and Switzerland), plus the European Union which is represented by the President of the Council of Europe and the President of the ECB.
The meetings to be held on 7 and 8 July in the German city will be fundamental for understanding the future global order and the balance of power between the main superpowers after the upheavals that took place in 2016, from Brexit to Donald Trump's presidency in the USA.
It will be the summit of the first times: in Hamburg, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet for the first time, but also Emmanuel Macron, the man who promised the French to bring the country back to the helm of the EU by reforming it from within, and Chinese president Xi Jinping, the one which instead aims to make Beijing the first Asian and world power.
But above all it will be a meeting in which the main protagonists could finally throw off the mask, "putting aside" diplomacy and openly demonstrating bad moods and disagreements on the major issues at the center of the international debate.
If we consider last month's G7 in Taormina as a sort of appetizer, the G20 in Hamburg could become the main course of a table where most of the diners might want to corner one of the guests, the most important, that Donald Trump that he had already erected in Sicily a symbolic wall between the United States and European countries, opening the divisions on international trade and climate, subsequently confirmed with the announcement of the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement (to which the other leaders have responded by declaring that the agreements are not negotiable).
The tensions seen in May between the seven most industrialized countries in the world could now spread like wildfire, including 12 other states (13 with the EU) that will try to advance their own interests. Because if on the one hand Mexico will be present, for example, intending to give battle to the US after the declarations of the tenant of the White House on immigration, on the other hand there will also be the closest US allies, such as Saudi Arabia .
North Korea, migrations and Africa will be among the main topics covered during the summit, but as happened a month ago in Taormina, global attention is once again focused on climate change and international trade, issues related to what has always been the main objective of the G1999 since 20, the year of its creation, to date, namely political coordination between member countries in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. As for the second issue, the battle will be between countries with a trade deficit (such as the United States) and those with a surplus (such as Germany and China). Speaking instead of the climate, it could be Beijing that shuffles the cards, intending to accelerate the production of wind turbines and photovoltaic panels.
Based on the prospects, it seems difficult to think that at the end of these two days of meetings, the various leaders will be able to find an agreement and heal the wounds that have opened up over the last few months. More likely, however, is that it manifests itself a clash between two opposing "factions": on one side the EU countries, flanked by Russia and China, on the other the USA and its allies.
Indeed, the number one in the Kremlin seems to have already decided which side to take (and Trump's statements in Warsaw on the "destabilizing behavior of Russia" could have endorsed his choice even more). In an intervention in the Handeslblatt, one of the main German newspapers, Putin said he shares 'German G20 priorities': "I am convinced that only an appeal for open trade, based on unified norms and standards can stimulate growth in the world and promote the advancement of development in relations between states".
“Russia fulfills the obligations of the Kyoto agreement – continued the Russian president – Basically it has compensated for the additional emissions of other countries and regions of the world. We see the fact that the Paris Agreement was signed in April last year as a secure precondition of international law for long-term climate regulation, and we want to make a vigorous contribution to its implementation”.
But Hamburg could become the homeland of a new axis formed by Germany and China. As Bloomberg writes: “When world leaders meet in Hamburg on Friday, China and Germany will make their move to usurp the role that has always been the United States. The two powers of Asia and Europe have been pushed into an informal alliance aimed at garnering the leadership that the United States is accused of having abandoned since the day Trump took office in the White House.
Beijing does not hide its intentions: "China is ready to support Germany at the G20, so that we can take a step forward, on the basis of the Hangzou summit, at the Hamburg summit" - said Xi Jinping last July 5 in Berlin – “We are facing a new beginning of relations between China and Germany”. Merkel, for her part, underlined that "in these times of unrest in the world, Germany and China can make a contribution to calming the situation".
In short, in what promises to be one of the most tense summits in recent world history, Donald Trump may not have an easy life, but given the tone used in Warsaw, we must be sure that the US President will do everything to give battle.
