In the most apocalyptic scenario GDP could be cut by as much as 13%, in the long run: to estimate the damage of a possible exit of France from the euro, on which the candidate Marine Le Pen has announced a referendum in case of victory in the next presidential elections, is the Institut Montaigne, an authoritative French think tank which tried to quantify the impact of such a scenario given that, as underlined by Les Echos which reports the results of the study, "the extreme right has never given numbers".
These numbers would therefore be merciless: in the most optimistic scenario, the French GDP would lose 0,6% in one year and 4% in the long term (-2,3% and -9% the median estimate, -3,2% and -13% the most dramatic), which means that the turnover of the second economy of the Eurozone would come amputee of 180 billion, with the loss of half a million jobs.
The studio also launches the alarm on the spread with the German Bund: the differential between the French 30-year OAT rate and the German equivalent, which fluctuated between 40 and 84 basis points in the autumn, shot up last Monday to 2012 basis points, the highest since XNUMX.
