There is talk of a "European problem" if François Hollande is elected on Sunday. And, apparently, also the bickering last night, on live TV, do not bode well: the socialist candidate reproached Nicolas Sarkozy for having yielded too much to Angela Merkel. François Lafond, political analyst, does not want to be misled by those words: «Actually I believe that Hollande has a vision of Europe closer to that of the German chancellor, compared to Sarkozy. With a new President, the Franco-German axis could work better. It would also be an advantage for the Union».
The political scientist Lafond, involved on several occasions in various think tanks, until a few months ago at the head of the Paris antenna of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, was also in the past a consultant in Rome to the Minister of Regional Affairs of the Prodi government, Linda Lanzillotta. His may seem like a countercurrent opinion. But in Paris several observers are beginning to think the same way.
FIRST online – In your opinion, is Hollande really a convinced pro-European?
Lafond - Certainly. You have collaborated for a long time with Jacques Delors. He belongs to the same family as Jacques Attali and Pascal Lamy, economists from the same political area, who believe in the free market, albeit with limits. And who believe that greater economic integration at European level can better protect citizens. His is not the intergovernmental Europe of Sarkozy but a federal Europe. The current President has made decisions with the Chancellor when necessary. But he never thought of transferring a part of sovereignty to the supranational level. From this point of view, Sarkozy's Europe is not that of Delors but of de Gaulle.
FIRST online – With Merkel, however, there seemed to be an understanding…
Lafond – In reality, the tradition to which the chancellor refers is that of the CDU, which is sincerely pro-European. Let's say that the judgments of Karlsruhe on the compatibility of the Treaty of Lisbon with the German national law forced it to slow down on that road at times.
FIRST online – Yes, however, concretely, Hollande wants to renegotiate the fiscal compact, the pact on a balanced budget, wanted by Merkozy. If he really is elected next Sunday, as the polls indicate, will it be the occasion for a clash with Merkel?
Lafond - I do not think so. Hollande wants to add to that pact a protocol with some measures to stimulate growth. But, if he looks at the statements of the chancellor in recent times, he will be fine with her too. By placing growth as the number one objective (and not just having balanced public finances) on the European agenda, Hollande would also be on the same wavelength as Mario Monti.
FIRST online - And then? Can they continue on the path of greater integration? And, for example, aiming for an increase in the budget available to the EU, now under discussion?
Lafond – After that everything will be much more difficult, at least in the early days. In a year, Merkel will have to face elections in her country. She will be in the countryside. And, among other things, if in the end you find yourself governing with a grand alliance, including the Social Democrats, your affinities with a Hollande president could even grow. This, however, we will see next year. Even Hollande, however, could have some problems at the beginning. He should manage the majority of him, which includes people like the socialist Arnaud Montebourg and the leader of the extreme left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who believe that Europe has so far been just a Trojan horse of economic liberalism rather than a system of protection of citizens.
FIRST online – Hollande will also be a pro-European. But in this campaign, like Sarkozy, he hasn't talked much about Europe. Why?
Lafond – Europe in France divides, both on the left and on the right. But Hollande could do like Mitterrand, who had a pro-European attitude even if a part of the socialists and the communists didn't agree with him. With Hollande, as with Mitterrand, we could move towards a more federal Europe.
FIRSTOnline – What do you think of the fears of many in Paris regarding a negative reaction of the markets, if Hollande is indeed elected? His intentions as a rival to high finance may not help him…
Lafond – Difficult to predict if the spread will shoot up. As for his criticisms of the financial world, it is in part the electoral rhetoric of someone who wants to attract support from even the furthest left. In reality, Hollande is a moderate, reformist socialist. In the end, he could also use a negative response from the markets to his advantage, exploit it to abandon precisely that part of the rhetoric that served to get him elected. To tell his allies further to the left that some concessions to the markets will eventually have to be made.
