Everything more or less according to script in the first round of the French presidential elections, which see the predictions and polls of the eve essentially confirmed. The outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy is in trouble, surpassed by the socialist challenger François Hollande by about 3-4 percentage points according to the average of the data released by the various institutes (28-29% for Hollande, between 25 and 27% for Sarkozy): on Sunday 6 May, the ballot will still be between the two of them.
According to the first results indeed, which have highlighted around 20% abstention (up from 16% in 2007), the outsider was avoided, who could have been Marine Le Pen even more than the far-left candidate Mélenchon. The daughter of the former leader of the Front National Jean-Marie has however brought home an excellent result: the 20% attributed to it by Ipsos would in fact be the absolute record for the far-right party.
Slightly below Mélenchon expectations, still around 10-11%: all votes which, in the second round, will in any case be useful to Hollande in his race, one can now say as a favourite, for the seat of the Elysée. On the other hand, the centrist Bayrou was disappointing: the maximum percentage attributed to him is 9% of BVA. However, his electorate is already more difficult to position: while the Front National could in the end divert most of the votes to Sarkozy, the MoDem leader has instead repeatedly leaned towards the left. We'll see, the appointment is for May 6: Hollande takes the lead but Sarkozy is there.
