Bayrou sacrifices himself. And it does it at the right time, at least from the point of view of Emmanuel Macron, the rising star of French politics aiming straight for the ballot in the next presidential elections: probably Marine Le Pen will find you, but first she has to overcome the competition of the ex prime minister (under Sarkozy presidency) François Fillon, center-right candidate recovering from the "Penelopegate" (the scandal of his wife hired in Parliament with a fictitious) but not for this reason crushed by the polls.
François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem movement and habitué of French presidential elections (he had already run three times, from 2002 to 2012), therefore renounces his fourth consecutive candidacy for the Elysée and decides to support the former economy minister by Hollande: a boon for the leader of the liberal movement "En Marche!", just at a time when Fillon was recovering in the polls, which at the moment always see Le Pen in the lead with a theoretical 26% in the first round, and then precisely the elbow-to-elbow challenge around 20% between Fillon and Macron. Behind the socialist Hamon with 14% and the radical left Melenchon with 11% (A possible alliance would have brought one of the two candidates close to Le Pen…).
The second place that Macron, also supported across the Alps by former prime minister Matteo Renzi, is trying to grab, counts for a lot: it is practically worth a victory, given that all projections would then give him an overwhelming victory in the runoff with the leader of the Front National. We are not at the level of the plebiscitary 82% with which Chirac liquidated Le Pen father in the second round of 2002, but Macron would prevail with a comfortable 60%, a percentage which had decreased in recent weeks but which could now be reconsolidated with the support of Bayrou .
The important thing, however, is first to overcome the Republican Fillon: how far can Bayrou's move move? According to the press, the old fox of French politics is not actually making a great sacrifice, given that this time he was very weak in the polls. “Even his latest program-book, Résolution française – writes Les Echos -, hasn't caused much discussion”. And therefore his contribution may not be so substantial, even if it will certainly be fundamental in a challenge that will be decided by a handful of votes, according to current forecasts.
Bayrou, 65 years old (Macron has yet to turn 40) and a career as a farmer and high school teacher before launching himself into politics, however, should not be underestimated: in the last presidential elections, those of 2012, he collected 9,1%, but he did even better in 2007, when he was still head of the UDF center party and was capable of 18,6% in the first round, a percentage that would now almost be worth the ballot. The common goal of Macron and Bayrou is to create a third pole, moderate, an alternative to the most extreme and anti-European and strongly moralizing positions, as the French press writes underlining that both candidates are pointing the finger at Fillon's judicial scandals. Will it be enough?
