A little less than 100 days before the presidential elections (the first round is on April 23), France has yet to choose its centre-left candidate, i.e. the one who will have the arduous task of running for the Elysée in the sign of continuity with the Hollande presidency, one of the least popular in French republican history, so much so that for the first time an incumbent president did not run for a second term (it only happened to Pompidou, who however died during his first term in 1974).
Hollande stepped aside, making room for his own former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, which in the primaries scheduled for today (first round) and Sunday 29 January (ballot between the two best), challenges six other exponents of the socialist area as the big favorite. Among these also several exponents of the last government, including the former Minister of Economy Arnaud Montebourg, replaced in 2014 by Emmanuel Macron (now himself a candidate for the presidency with an independent list) and already in the running for the primaries of 2011, those which were the first in France open to all citizens and not just to party militants. At the time there were five candidates (Valls was also among them) and Hollande won with 39% in the first round and then overtaking Martine Aubry in the runoff with 56%.
These primaries had also been built on Hollande, as far as possible to spare the president from a too long campaign after a devastating mandate, between economic recession and terrorist attacks: now, however, it is the socialist candidate who is the only one missing from a chessboard already well established, with the centre-right primaries bringing the former prime minister to the fore François Fillon to the detriment of Sarkozy and Juppé, with the candidate of the radical left Jean-Luc Melenchon, which many surveys register in strong growth, with the outsider Emmanuel Macron, which with its movement En Marche! she is gaining consensus in the moderate area, and with what many see already in the second round, the leader of the Front National Marine Le Pen, smelling of exploits in the wake of Brexit and Trump.
We are therefore voting today, Sunday 22 January, from 9 to 19, and up to 3 million voters are expected at the polls (many were in the 2011 edition): in addition to Valls and Montebourg, the other candidates are former ministers Benoît Hamon, Vincent Peillon and Sylvia Pinel (the only woman in the running), the ecologist François de Rugy and Jean-Luc Bennahmias, among the supporters of basic income.
The favorite is obviously Valls, returning from an unfortunate episode of protest (on Tuesday in Brittany a young man attacked him by slapping him) and who included in his program in particular: maintaining the deficit below 3%, increasing public spending by 2,5% per year, zero-interest loans for those who start a business, tax exemption of overtime, halving of the wage gap between men and women, the establishment of a solidarity income of 800 euros for all French adults. On the European front Valls confirms his outright no to Turkey's entry and proposes, among other things, the establishment of a European minimum wage, a more uniform taxation for companies, establishing a minimum and a maximum at the continental level, and above all a squeeze on multinationals so that they pay taxes in the countries where they actually build their turnover. The former prime minister would also like to reduce the number of parliamentarians, increase teachers' salaries, and rationalize the farewell to nuclear power, not excluding the maintenance of some plants.
Once the primaries have passed, the winner will have a task considered prohibitive from now on: according to many polls, including the most recent ones, it will be unlikely that a socialist will enter the presidential ballot on 7 May. Instead, it is more probable that Fillon is there, however reported in decline compared to December, when in the wake of the victory in the centre-right primaries he was credited with 26-29% in the first round and therefore considered to have an advantage over Le Pen: now the situation has reversed , with the consensus dropped to 23-25% and that of Le Pen consolidating at around 26% (in 2012 polls predicted it to be between 19 and 20%). Valls, the most accredited of the Socialist Party, has to settle for an estimate of around 10%, while the Macron phenomenon is growing more and more.
The liberal exponent, passionate about philosophy, former adviser to the Rothschilds and Minister of the Economy until last summer (read the interview with FIRSTonline of April 30, 2015), now boasts a approval rating of 17-19% at worst, given that according to Le Monde, in the event of a victory for Montebourg or Hamon in the centre-left primaries, it could rise to more than 20% and therefore almost be in a position to dream of the runoff. Finally, also pay attention to the radical Melenchon, who rejected confrontation in the centre-left primaries by presenting himself on his behalf with a list that could garner 15% according to polls. Well yes, more than Valls and any other possible socialist candidate.
