Emmanuel Macron's race seems unstoppable. At least according to the polls released in recent days, the rising star of European politics, who has just been elected president of the French Republic, should also win the legislative elections scheduled for Sunday 11 June (Sunday 18 the second round). According to Les Echos La République En Marche "is preparing to raid deputies in the National Assembly", the branch of the French Parliament that elects its members by direct suffrage, with single-member constituencies.
Out of the 577 deputies to be elected, polls credit Macron with a range that would lead him to win up to 400, a very large majority, even much more solid than that of Hollande's Socialist Party in the last legislature (it had 288). The president's party would therefore collect 30% in the first round, with all the other parties very distant: Republicans at 21%, Fn at 18%, France Insoumise (Mélenchon) at 12% and the PS which confirms the flop of the presidential elections with 7% of voting intentions on the eve.
EN MARCHE TOWARDS TRIUMPH
The French press is now certain: the only pitfall could be the second round, but the vocation of Macron's movement is to unite rather than divide, as we saw in the presidential ballot when the new president asphalted Marine Le Pen also taking advantage of the votes of socialists and republicans. The same could happen this time. "The price to pay - according to Les Echos - could be that of having a very young and inexperienced parliamentary team".
But with such a large majority Macron will be able to launch its reform program, starting with that of the labor code, to be done by the end of the summer according to Prime Minister Edouard Philippe's schedule, and which specifically provides for the possibility for trade union associations to deal directly and exclusively with companies, going beyond national contracts. There will also be news on the unemployment allowance, which can also be extended to those who resign but with limits for those who refuse new jobs; the 1,7% increase in social security contributions, which in the end-of-year maneuver will bring 20 billion to the state coffers; the increase of 250 euros per year for those receiving the minimum wage (SMIC) and of around 500 for incomes of 2.200 euros net per month. To be resolved in the first 18 months also the issue of pensions: according to calculations, 60% of pensioners will be penalized by the reform, but Macron intends to compensate with another major innovation in the pipeline, the abolition of the tax on first homes, which will benefit 80% of those who pay it, including elderly and vulnerable groups.
RIGHT IN TROUBLE
For the Front National of Marine Le Pen a real debacle is announced. Not so much on the percentage of consents, still quite solid at 18% on a national basis, as on the probable difficulty in setting up a group in the Chamber: 18% in the polls is a range of 8-18 deputies, and the minimum to form a group is 15.
Displaced by the rise of Macron, who has upset the balance both on the right and on the left, effectively forming a government of broad understandings (both the prime minister and the minister of the economy are from the republican area), even the Gaullists are preparing for a particularly delicate return. Many of them have been included in the lists of La Republique En Marche (LREM), the great "party of the nation" that the president has put in place to ensure, after the Elysée, also a solid majority in Parliament. Veterans are confused: polls still indicate 21% of preferences in the first round, with 120-150 deputies elected, taking advantage of the flop of the Front National. The big problem, however, is the second round, which would pass many of those preferences to Macron. “We are at risk in 80 colleges,” they say from the headquarters of Les Republiquains.
SOCIALIST DISASTER
Another major theme of these legislative elections is the probable confirmation of the flop of the Socialist Party. In part, the outgoing majority party has curbed the bleeding of the last presidential elections by getting on Macron's bandwagon, but as far as veterans are concerned, the polls speak for themselves: 7% of preferences, roughly what Benoit Hamon collected in the recent race for Eliseo, where PS scored its worst score ever. However, there will be bleeding in the Chamber, at least numerically: the main centre-left party will go from 288 deputies to a maximum of 25, according to projections. On the other hand, the radical left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon should fare better, but after the boom in the presidential elections, when it obtained almost 20% in the first round, it now hovers around 10-12%: it should in any case be enough to form a parliamentary group, given that the deputies elected would be between 15 and 20.
MINISTERS AT THE GAP
There are as many as 6 ministers who submit to the judgment of the polls: in case of defeat, they will have to leave the newly installed government and there will be an initial reshuffle immediately. In particular, the Minister of Territorial Cohesion is running Richard Ferrand, which risked creating the first grain of Macron by ending up under investigation and which is returning to the Breton stronghold, where he had already been elected in 2012 with the Socialist Party. Confirmation of him would be important: he is one of the "Macronians" of the first hour, one of the main architects of the miracle that brought the 39-year-old leader of En Marche to the Elysée.
The new Minister of the Economy is also submitted to the judgment of the voters Bruno Le Maire: in 2012, presenting himself with Sarkozy's republicans, he was plebiscitated in his constituency with 58% of the votes. Instead, the Minister of European Affairs takes the field in Paris Marielle DeSarnez, of the centrist MoDem party, which supports Macron: it is presented in the same constituency where it was defeated in 2007 and where the left usually wins.
DATA AND CURIOSITIES
– The candidates for the 577 seats up for grabs are 7.882, the highest number ever after the over 8 in 2002.
– The average age of candidates is 48,5 years, lower than in 2012 (50 years) but higher than in 1997 (42 years). The average age of LREM candidates is 46 years old.
- The 39% of outgoing deputies do not run again, also by virtue of the new law which prohibits the accumulation of offices. For example, former premiers François Fillon and Jean-Marc Ayrault will not return to Parliament.
– I'm fine 48 the constituencies left vacant by En Marche, as the favored candidates are considered "Macron-compatible", with a view to a possible agreement following the vote.
