Germany below zero, France flat. The setback suffered by the first two economies of the Eurozone, which this morning published disappointing numbers on GDP performance in the second quarter, is a difficult setback to take.
Especially surprising the German data: between April and June the locomotive of Europe recorded a 1,2% year-on-year growth, but also a 0,2% contraction compared to the previous three months, a worse result than the expected -0,1% on average by analysts. This is estimated by the Federal Statistical Office, which explains the decline with the negative contribution of foreign trade and with the drop in investments.
The result obtained on a short-term basis is similar to that calculated by Istat for Italy, but – unlike Germany – our country returned to recession at a technical level, since the negative growth had also affected the first quarter (-0,1%). Berlin, on the other hand, between January and March instead achieved growth of 0,7%, a figure revised downwards compared to the +0,8% initially communicated.
as to France, the scenario that emerges is that of stagnation, as Paris achieved a zero change compared to the gross domestic product in the first three months of the year (when in turn growth was flat compared to the period October-December 2013). Also in this case the result is slightly lower than the estimates of analysts, who had forecast a fractional growth of 0,1%. The national institute of statistics Inseee points out that almost all the growth engines of the country are at a standstill.
In an interview published today in "Le Monde", the French Finance Minister Michel Sapin estimated that the national GDP will close 2014 with a growth of 0,5%, exactly half of the initial target, set at 1% . In any case, the drastic cut in the forecasts could still prove too optimistic, considering that to date the acquired growth of the French GDP is 0,3%. Sapin also states that France is unlikely to grow more than 1% in 2015, while previously the estimate spoke of +1,7%.
The minister then specified that weak growth, together with low inflation, will bring this year's public deficit above 4%, well above the 3,8% initially estimated. Sapin then launched an appeal to Europe to adapt the budget rules and strengthen the action of the ECB, thus taking a path that can really bring the economy back to an expansive phase.
After the release of data on GDP, at the start of trading, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is down 0,17%, while that of Paris is down 0,25%.
