The Sarko saga draws to a close, and it does it in the worst way. After 5 years of presidency and on the day of his re-nomination for the Elysée, the leader of the French right sees his approval rating at the population, second data from TNS-Sofres, drop from 63% in June 2007 to 28% in February 2012. Monsieur le Président has even had to see his premier François Fillon overtaken, whose popularity has indeed dropped from 57 to 35%, but since February 2008 it has consistently been higher than Sarkozy's.
The prestigious transalpine newspaper Le Monde, traditionally hostile to the president, has retraced the steps of his descending parable since occupying the Elysium. Here they are, year by year.
2007 - Good morning starts in the morning: even before forming the new government, on May 18, Sarkozy allows himself a short vacation to "meditate" on the future of his mandate. A moment of well-deserved relaxation, after a last-ditch electoral campaign against the socialist candidate Segolène Royal. And on that occasion, on 11 May 2007, he scored his first own goal: he goes to Malta for three days on the yacht of his billionaire friend Vincent Bollorè, complete with photographers in tow and a helicopter to admire the coasts of the island. Nothing could be more wrong for an alleged magician of political communication like him, and definitely so in contrast with the sober style of their predecessors Mitterand and Chirac.
And the first year goes no better on the reform front. The tax package approved in August, the so-called TEPA law, is causing an uproar of controversy: with the introduction of measures such as the tax shield and the lightening of some taxes including those of inheritance and on large estates, Sarkozy is accused of favoring the richest and of putting the state deficit at risk. It has been estimated that with this reform, tax revenue decreased by 2007 billion in 1,5 and by as much as 10 billion the following year.
His international debut was also negative: in the famous speech in Dakar on July 26, in the former colony of Senegal, Sarkozy allows himself a gaffe almost worthy of Berlusconi. While acknowledging the mistakes of colonization, he adds: "The real tragedy of Africa is that African man has not entered history", sparking indignation across the continent.
Finally, 2007 saw for the president a hot autumn: on October 15 he divorces Cécilia after 11 years of marriage and endless gossip; on the 30th he makes the Parliament vote a presidential allowance increased by 172%, with all the controversies of the case; and on 8 November the reform for the autonomy of universities came into force, leading millions of young people to protest the measure.
The year ends with Gaddafi's visit to Paris and the first rumors about a liaison between the president and Carla Bruni: on December 31, 2007 Sarkozy's popularity has already dropped below 50%.
2008 - The second year of the mandate starts immediately with a bang: on 2 February Sarko marries Carla Bruni, just 4 months after his divorce from Cécilia. But there is little to celebrate: the 21st of the same month inflation in France climbs 2,8% year-on-year, a record since 1992, and two days later, at the Agriculture Fair, the tenant of the Elysée argues furiously with a visitor who had refused to shake his hand. The unrepeatable epithets attributed to Sarkozy go round the net.
The month of March was even worse: not even the time to take advantage of the news that the unemployment rate fell to 7,5% in the fourth quarter of 2007 (the lowest figure in the last 25 years), that Sarkozy's party, the UMP, takes a beating in local elections. After March 16, the left governs 20 out of 22 regions and 60 out of 101 provinces. In the meantime, Prime Minister Fillon's popularity rises and surpasses that of the president, who runs for cover with an initial reshuffle of the government, where he places several trusted men between ministers and undersecretaries.
2008 is also the year of painful pension reform, which raises the contribution period to 41 years; of the semester of EU presidency (whom Sarkozy assumes on July 1st); and ofonset of the financial crisis, for which the French president speaking at the UN general assembly on 25 September invokes a "virtuous capitalism". A month later Sarkozy convenes a Eurogroup in Paris where the first measures are taken to help the banks and reassure the markets. But that does not prevent the crisis from engulfing France as well: on 28 November the unemployed exceeded the two million mark. One of the solutions thought up by the president is Sunday work, which is however immediately rejected by the press, the opposition and public opinion.
2009 - The year starts under the banner of major street protests: on 29 January it is estimated that 3 million citizens took to the streets of all of France to contest the policies of the Elysée. Strikes and clashes even in Guadeloupe, overseas territory. Sarkozy fails to reverse course with reforms and indeed on March 11th he gets overwhelmed by a "Parentopoli" style scandal: in fact, he appoints relatives and friends to lead important state institutions and banks. Arouses particular clamor that of François Perol, his historic right-hand man, at the top of the Caisse d'Epargne.
In the international arena, on 5 May the mayor of France, in his opening speech of the campaign for the European elections, takes a stand against Turkey's entry into the EU: “He doesn't have the vocation to become a member of Europe”.
The Europeans will be a success: the UMP is again the first party with 28% of preferences. But the own goal is lurking again: on 16 July the French Court of Auditors denounces in its report the expenditure of almost 400 thousand euros by the Elysée for polls published in the friendly newspaper, Le Figaro, and on the LCI channel.
On September 25, the Clearstream trial, theater of the Sarkozy-Villepin confrontation, begins. The case concerns a lobby of politicians and industrialists (including Sarkozy, Villepin, Strauss-Kahn and the top management of important companies) which allegedly set up a judicial ambush in 2004 to discredit the competitors, making them believe they were involved in the scandal of the Taiwanese frigates.
The year ends with the record funding on the market of 22 billion euro to finance training, research and industry, and with the flop of December 26 at the Copenhagen environment summit, when Sarkozy's ecological appeal was not picked up by the participants.
2010 - It is the year of inexorable decline. Again defeated by the left at the regionals in March, Sarkozy plummets in the polls. In April, according to a BVA survey, more than two French out of three (69%) have a negative opinion of the first three years of the president, and one in three (33%) even “very negative”. Only 29% have a "pretty good" judgment on Sarko's work, but when asked about purchasing power, the verdict is implacable: 87% of those interviewed declare themselves dissatisfied.
As if that weren't enough, the first case of gossip about the marriage between Nicolas and Carla Bruni explodes in May: rumors confirmed by the couple's entourage speak of a marital crisis.
2010 is also the year of French defeat at the World Cup, with the annexed mutiny of the team under the orders of Domenech and endless controversies on the damaged honor of the nation. Sarkozy takes the matter to heart, immediately summoning the General States of French football.
France in the eye of the storm also in Europe: several authorities, including commissioner Viviane Reding, contest discriminatory policies against Roma in Paris.
On 27 October, despite 5 months of fierce protests, the pension reform which raises the contribution period and the retirement age to 62 years. November is instead the month of the Wikileaks international scandal, from which emerges the figure of Sarkozy as the "most pro-American president in the world".
2011 - The first half of the year is the worst ever in terms of approval ratings for the French: in May it reaches the minimum percentage of 20%, while Fillon is around 35%. The node is the law on 35 working hours, which many exponents of the same right-wing government proposed to abolish, but Sarko goes straight, arousing controversy within his own party.
February is the month of the revolt of the magistrates, who call for a week of strike to protest the lack of funds. In March, yet another electoral slap arrives: in administrative elections, the left gets 60 provinces, and as if that weren't enough, Le Pen's Front National also gains support.
In the international field, in the spring France participates in the war in Libya by supporting the rebels against the regime of Colonel Gaddafi.
May month of great gossip: the newspapers are unleashed on the pregnancy (later confirmed) of Carla Bruni, while Dominique Strauss-Kahn, director of the International Monetary Fund (and likely leftist candidate for the following year's presidential elections), is overwhelmed in New York from a sex scandal. He will be replaced by Christine Lagarde, and will abandon any intention of running for the Elysée.
At the end of the month, France hosts a G8 meeting in Deauville e in June, Parliament votes to abolish the tax shield and increase inheritance and gift taxes. Sarkozy recovers ground, but his popularity remains very low: 25%.
It arrives in July another flop: Annecy's bid for the 2018 Winter Olympicsstrongly supported by the president himself, is soundly rejected by the IOC. August is the month dedicated to the crisis: first a Franco-German summit with Angela Merkel, then on the 24th the budget package from 12 billion, under the banner of rigour.
In the autumn, the daughter of Sarkozy and Carla Bruni, Giulia, was born, while the president finally knew the name of his opponent in the 2012 presidential elections: the name of François Hollande, ex-husband of Segolène Royal, comes out of the socialist primaries.
The year ends with another 7 billion penalty plan, which comes just before the G20 in Cannes and the ratification of new European treaty, on December 5, which establishes a new continental governance through the Fiscal Compact and a renewed State-saving Fund (ESM). The agreement was not signed by Great Britain, whose prime minister David Cameron entered into strong controversy with Sarkozy.
Finally, between 2011 and 2012, two bad figures accompany the end of the Sarkozy epic: unemployment rate exceeds 9% (and jobless claims hit 12-year record) and in January France sees its rating cut by Standard & Poor's and Fitch. Triple A, Sarkozy's forte, is lost.
