After UK left turn, the moment has come in France where the New Popular Front and Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble are playing everything to avoid another sensational turning point which, however, in the case of Paris could be towards the far right of Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National . Sunday July 7th in fact, the run-off of legislative elections French, a highly anticipated electoral event throughout Europe which will be decisive for the future balance of the old continent.
French ballot: general information
As well as occurred in the first round, voters can vote from 8 am to 18 pm. In large cities, including Paris, they have until 20 pm. The exit polls and the first results will arrive immediately afterwards.
Legislative elections serve to renew the entire National Assembly, made up of 577 deputies who will remain in office for five years, unless the Assemblée nationale is dissolved again early. In the first round, 76 deputies have already been elected, including 39 from the Rassemblement National and its allies. 32 of Nouveau Front Populaire, two for Ensemble, one for the Republicans, three belonging to other forces.
So there are 501 left. That's not much more than 400 two-player challenges, less than a hundred triangular ones. As for the main duels, in 160 constituencies Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National faces a candidate from the New Popular Front, while in 150 constituencies the choice is between the candidate of the RN and that of Ensemble.
Elections in France: how the first round went
The final data of the first round were delivered to the Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, 33,15% of the votes cast, 10 million preferences. In second place was the New Popular Front, the alliance between the various left-wing parties, which won 27,99%. To the presidential majority, formed by Together and its ally Horizons received 20,76% of the votes, with almost 7 million preferences.
Desistances are crucial
They had emerged from the first round 4 quadrangular and 306 triangular, the largest number of three-way ballots in the history of the French Fifth Republic. A result that could have encourage the Rassemblement National. The triangulations would in fact have been held between the candidates of the right, who often came first, and those of the New Popular Front and Ensemble, who alternated in second and third place in many constituencies. The left and the presidential majority, which address an electorate that is not the same, but in some cases similar, would therefore have stolen votes from each other, ferrying Le Pen's party towards a probable absolute majority.
From here desistance: 218 candidates finished third or fourth in their constituencies, but still put to the ballot, they accepted the call to "desist" launched by President Emmanuel Macron and some of the leaders of the left to push the “Republican Front” and concentrate all the votes of the center and left electorate on one person, thus reducing the chances of victory for RN. Among the withdrawals, 129 came from the New Popular Front, 81 from Ensemble.
French ballots: the four post-vote scenarios
The first scenario is the conquest by the Rassemblement National of the absolute majority (equal to 289) of seats, which would be followed by the nomination of Jordan Bardella as prime minister. Thanks to the desistances, however, this scenario seems less likely by the hour.
What will happen then? According to experts there are three other possibilities. The second scenario involves the relative majority for Le Pen's party, which would lead to the use of a reserve of external votes, at least for the confidence in the government and for the approval of the finance law. Granting this external support could be the deputies of the Républicains whom Marine Le Pen has defined as "compatible" with a Bardella government. “We only need 270 seats to govern,” said the ultra-right leader, imagining finding the other 20 votes in Parliament.
The third hypothesis is the one "pushed" by the outgoing prime minister, Gabriel Attal: "a plural majority“. Simply put, a sort of coalition government could be formed that would include a very broad spectrum, from the Républicains to the communists. However, the radical left of France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon would remain outside, incompatible with Macronists and Républicains, but for which a sort of neutrality is indispensable.
The last scenario taken into consideration by the experts, also considered unlikely, is the one which foresees, in the absence of a majority, the arrival of a “Draghi-style” government, i.e. an executive led by a personality considered super partes. We are talking about three former prime ministers such as Lionel Jospin, Jean-Pierre Raffarin and Bernard Cazeneuve.
French ballots: what the polls say
According to the latest Ifop survey carried out for Le Figaro the withdrawals would have significantly weakened the Rassemblement National in over 200 constituencies. Le Pen's party could therefore stop at between 210 and 240 seats, many fewer than expected before the first round, when we were talking about 240-270 deputies elected by RN. On the other hand, the left front is stable at 170-200, while the party led by outgoing president Emmanuel Macron is slightly increasing at 95-125.
The Toluna Harris Interactive survey for Challenges, M6 and Rtl, relaunched by Bfm TV, instead predicts that the party of The Pen it should have between 7 and 190 seats in the July 220 run-off, against the 289 needed. To the Nouveau Front Populaire they could instead go between 159 and 183 deputies, while Together it could reach 110-135 seats. THE republicans however, they should not exceed 30-50 deputies.
