Hundreds of dead, many of them civilians, and hundreds of thousands of displaced people, that is, the prelude to a real humanitarian emergency that will only be partially resolved with the cease-fire agreed yesterday between Turkey and the USA (and which Ankara has defined only as a "pause"): the assessment of the attack by the Turkish army in strip of land in northern Syria which until October 6 was manned by US troops and where the Kurdish people reside (protagonist of the battle – won up to now – against the Islamic State), it is already dramatic. For months, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had been harboring the idea of occupying that territory to relocate over 3 million Syrian refugees: a move that will create further havoc in an already very hot area of the Middle East, paving the way for the return of the terrorist organization Isis.
In all of this, the international community is trying to take a strong position: while President Donald Trump leaves the area to his fate, the EU unites in condemning Erdogan and many countries including Italy (of which Turkey is the third largest arms importer, with orders for 360 million euros in 2018 alone) have announced their intention to interrupt military-type commercial relations with Ankara. If this will be enough, and what are the future scenarios in Syria, we asked Lia Quartapelle, group leader of the Democratic Party in the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chamber and researcher of the think tank of studies on international politics ISPI.
Honorable Member, how do you evaluate the agreement reached between the US and Turkey for the ceasefire in Syria?
“Let's see if it holds up. If an interposition mission on the model of Lebanon in 2006 were to be set up, I believe that Europe must play its part”.
Meanwhile, Italy has already ordered a block on the sale of arms to Turkey: what happens now and how effective will this measure be in isolating Erdogan?
“An investigation is underway by the ministry to terminate all contracts, including existing ones, in compliance with law no. 185 of 1990 according to which our country is forbidden to sell weapons to countries that declare war. It is a first important signal, and we know that symbols count for a lot in foreign policy”.
However, many will say that in the meantime we have already sold them the weapons…
“If they hadn't bought them from us, they would have bought them from others. Now two things are important: the immediate stop of the existing contracts, once the conditions of withdrawal have been verified (which could involve penalties), and the interruption of the international Active Fence mission, which was designed to protect the southern Turkish border from the attack Syrian and which now obviously no longer has a reason to exist".
There is also talk of possible economic sanctions, while the president of the European Parliament David Sassoli has asked that the discussion of Turkey's entry into the EU be stopped immediately. What do you think?
“I prefer military sanctions to economic sanctions. These days there is also talk of boycotting Turkish products, but it makes little sense: Turkey is not just Erdogan, it is many things, there are also opponents of the regime among the entrepreneurs. For the same reason, I don't agree with stopping Ankara's process of integration into the EU: the Turkish opposition is pro-European and so we would end up closing the door on Erdogan's opponents, who instead must be supported. I would rather open a serious discussion within NATO, to take measures against Turkey".
Erdogan had threatened the EU to open its borders and allow over 3 million Syrian refugees to enter our continent…
“Refugees are a pretext, they have never been the real problem. In fact, until a few months ago, Erdogan also wanted to give him Turkish citizenship, in exchange for votes to increase his consensus".
Is a military intervention by the international community conceivable?
"Whose? The United States have just withdrawn, Europe has not intervened when it should have, only Russia is left to preside over the area and lend a hand. Europe missed the opportunity a few months ago, when Trump himself asked it to station troops in northern Syria: we should have done it, in hindsight we should have said yes 100.000 times. The American president also asked Italy, but we were at the dawn of the government crisis: as a deputy, I also asked a parliamentary question, which however ended in nothing. At the time we were in opposition, but if the discussion had taken hold, the Democratic Party would have had to give its consent, in my opinion”.
Is the commitment of Europe and Italy sufficient in your opinion?
"What is being done is a good first step, unfortunately there aren't the tools to do more: in Europe there isn't even a common army".
Now what happens in Syria? Is the risk of ISIS coming back?
“The risk of Isis reorganizing itself is very pronounced. There are 12.000 prisoners of the Islamic State in Kurdish territory and unfortunately I do not believe that the Kurds still have the means and the possibility to keep them at bay, nor do I believe that this is Turkey's intention. And then there is the big question mark over the Syrian reconstruction process: how will it do it, in this situation?”.
So is Vladimir Putin's Russia emerging from this story reinforced?
“Yes, because Trump withdrew his troops, fulfilling his electoral promise and in an attempt to wink at Turkey and isolate Iran, but in doing so he lost credibility with those who were and could still be valuable allies in the Middle East, such as the Kurds. Now it is unlikely that countries fighting terrorism will trust Washington and be willing to work together to solve the problems that are dear to the United States and the Western world. They will more easily trust other allies, such as Russia".
President Sergio Mattarella visited Trump, pressing the US president also on international issues. How do you judge the tone and content of the meeting?
“Mattarella was very good, very courageous. He explained Italy's reasons to a president whose methods are truly unprecedented ”.
While Italy and Europe rightly point the finger at Erdogan, another massacre continues to take place off the Italian coast, that of migrants. More terrible images have arrived in recent days: will the approach change with the new Giallorossi government?
"Yes, we are working on Libya to see how to resolve the issue."
