With those who throb at 300 per hour, Monza owes a historic debt: that of leaving interest to the rest of the championship. Debt often not absolved, not even when -30 and more years ago- the race at the Autodrome effectively closed the season, leaving to the handful of subsequent races, almost always overseas, often academic value. Now the debt increases. Given that, in our parts, those who throb at 300 per hour do so almost necessarily in a Ferrari red light, Monza is called upon to say whether the world title is still within the Cavallino's reach or not.
Let's try to be more practical. Monza 2013, the 12th round of a very long World Championship first towards the East, then also towards the West, and today a stage just two-thirds of the way through the world championship: what are, again, Alonso's real chances for the world championship crown? Mathematics would seem to leave many roads open: 8 Grands Prix (including Monza) from the finish line, the Spanish Ferrari ace is second in the world championship, 46 points behind leader Vettel. A lot, 46 points. But also few: with 25 points up for grabs for a single victory, a retirement of the tri-champion in charge would be enough to bring his advantage back to much more acceptable and promising proportions. This is because Alonso is usually behind Vettel in the race. Who hasn't shone so far this year in qualifying; but when he runs for points he puts it in a higher gear. And therefore, in the event of a setback from Red Bull, he would be the ideal candidate for the famous 25 points.
All logical, then. But there are quite a few ma.
The first: in this phase of the World Championship, Red Bull and Ferrari are not the only single-seaters able to aim high. There is also Mercedes, as shown by the 3 victories (two Rosbergs, one Hamilton) in the last 6 GPs. But above all as evidenced by the flurry of pole positions conquered throughout the year, and when poles become many, they are the clear sign of a competitiveness that is moving towards the top.
The second: Ferrari (that is Alonso, because Massa is increasingly a desaparecido from F.1) hasn't won since the fifth race, in Spain, mid-May. After that: a long summer of suffering. And this is the question mark number 1 of the Cavallino 2013 edition. Finally, after two championships forced to run due to low initial value, the Ferrari F138 was very competitive at the start of the championship. Perhaps the most competitive. What happened afterwards?
And we are at the third point. Because this year's Ferrari made a few mistakes in the development phase. You are probably still complaining of some technical weakness, so much so that you are strengthening yourself (James Allison, new technical reinforcement, is making his debut in these days) and you are not ashamed to admit that for the future, also given the further difficulties imposed by a F.1 that from 2014 returns to the turbo engine, the restructuring plan, even human, will be powerful. All true, and in Maranello they do well to put their hands on their hearts and wallets. But let's not forget Red Bull! Which is an exceptional team, three World Cups in a row (almost 4) do not dominate by chance. Or luckily. And strength in Red Bull does not only come from the genius of Adrian Newey, a designer who, by winning at this pace after having done so in the past with Williams and then McLaren, is rewriting the technical history of Formula 1. The whole team is very strong: regular, ambitious, stubborn to the point of malice, very capable of learning from one's mistakes.
And that's not all: Vettel, where do we put him? He was a very, very fast guy. Today he is an absolute champion. His speed has kept it all: intact and indeed enhanced by a constancy of results, by an almost exemption from personal error. Even in the most difficult conditions such as the -unbearable, for a champion- to settle for a placement when full success is impracticable. At the recent age of 26, Vettel is very fast towards his fourth personal iris: Prost, just to make a comparison, conquered the fourth title at the age of 38; Michael Schumacher at 32; the legendary Fangio even at 45. And let's stop here, because there are no more human F.1 world champions four or more times.
This sequence of superlatives for team and driver is enough to explain why this Ferrari, yes, you have to improve; but is he also fighting a match against one of the strongest opponents ever?
Thank you, Monza, if you can reshuffle the cards of a game that seems already marked…
