The markets are beginning to perceive that something has changed in Europe and that perhaps it is not utopian to believe that finally, after so many errors and so many contradictory messages, we are on the way to finding the key to the skein to kick off the new tax agreement between the States and at the same time quickly launch the operation of the Fund to save States (EFSF). Operators maintain a cautious attitude especially towards the bonds of weaker countries such as Italy. However the auctions of Bots and Btps of yesterday and today show that someone is starting to look with interest at the high yields offered. We are still far from a true stabilization of the market but the climate in Italy and in Europe is certainly starting to improve. Market operators continue to show a low propensity for risk and tend to act somewhat in herds, i.e. they tend to imitate each other, so the turning points are slow in being perceived and when they do occur, they give rise to excesses of purchases or sales.
The improvement in the climate is certainly due to the measures adopted by the Monti government from the fiscal side on the basis of which it can be stated that Italy "is no longer a problem for Europe", but also to the different attitude that was encountered during the meeting between Monti himself and Chancellor Merkel against the State Rescue Fund. The Berlin meeting was a great success for our country which obtained the recognition of being once again reliable and therefore a legitimate interlocutor to put forward proposals for improving the functioning of the Community mechanisms, without arousing the suspicion that it aims only to unload on others our weaknesses and inefficiencies.
In particular, Monti insisted not so much on the need to increase the budget for the bailout fund, but on the improvement of its mode of operation in order to allow rapid interventions on the secondary market in full harmony with the ECB which, as is known, is already carrying out this type of intervention.
The problem is that of overcoming the rigidity of the imagined procedures which envisage the activation of the Fund upon a specific request by the States with an annexed public finance consolidation program and structural reforms for the revival of the economy. But for many countries, including Italy and Spain, similar consolidation measures have already been taken or announced as imminent, as markets struggle to recognize the progress made and keep interest rates and spreads against the German bund abnormally high. To overcome this "laziness" it would be appropriate for the State-saving Fund to be able to intervene on the market directly or through the ECB to which it could offer guarantees on the securities purchased by the ECB itself. Perhaps the announcement of such a way of operating would be enough to ensure that the markets move autonomously on the basis of a renewed confidence in the coherence of the whole Community system of rehabilitation and development.
We must try as soon as possible close the interest rate gap in Europe. Even the Germans must realize that a rate of 1,7% like today's XNUMX-year bunds is to be considered abnormally low and could trigger unwanted speculative bubbles, for which even their ascent towards equilibrium levels for long-term money (between 3 and 4%) would help to contain the differences with the rates of the countries judged to be weaker .
No amendments to the treaties are needed to start the operation of the State-saving Fund in the sense proposed by Monti. It is a political decision that European leaders can adopt without problems at the next summit on 31 January, thus sending a strong signal to the markets, and taking a decisive step to ensure not only the consolidation of public finances, but also for the creation of financial conditions and interest rates to allow us to resume the path of development.
