"Matteo Renzi is facing the problem of problem loans and non-performing loans on banks' balance sheets, and after this step the Italian economy could actually grow faster than the rest of Europe". Thus, a few days ago said George Soros. The team of scholars who edited the XX report of the Rosselli Foundation on the Italian banking system shares the approach ("but there are strong European perplexities about the bad bank - notes the president of the Foundation of the Milan Polytechnic, Giampli Bracchi - to allow today the 'use of such a tool, reserved for the time of the emergency" but with one condition: "It is necessary - explains Donato Masciandaro, director of the Department of Political Economy at Bocconi - to adopt an approach similar to that of Sweden in the XNUMXs : create one or more vehicles distant from political and banking power. And from there proceed to clean up the system. Woe to doing nothing as happened in Japan: the result is the infinite crisis".
But, while waiting to dispose of the 400 billion gross of non-performing loans and problematic loans that still afflict the system today, the banks will have to get rid of other mortgages accumulated in recent years. The analysis conducted by the Foundation's team is merciless: from an examination of the profitability of Italian banks, it is the result of a comparison between the top twenty Italian institutions and 32 comparable competitors in the Eurozone, it emerges that the credit performance of our house is assuming "very critical contours, due to the efficiency of the cost structure and the effectiveness of credit allocation". Only Banca Intesa and Iccrea travel in tier A, a patrol of medium-sized institutions defends itself (see Credem, Cariparma, Banca Popolare di Sondrio). Unicredit struggles more.
But what is impressive is that the analysis, conducted on the 2009/13 financial statements, turns out to be too generous with respect to the snapshot of credit that emerged with the European texts: in a dignified, if not brilliant position, there are Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, included in the "To do" band ("banks that have achieved moderate profitability", one step below Carige. Only Monte Paschi and Unipol are in the "help me" band. The amount of provisions weighs on the profitability of the top 400 Italian banks. A free bankers' choice? Not much, if anything a forced operation, given the situation of the portfolio. On the contrary, a surplus of provisions was needed to compensate for the excessively generous credit policy adopted in the previous period. Furthermore, to complicate the strategy of the banks , there has been a need to downsize income assets to strengthen the sovereign debt dam But now?
It is no coincidence that the report does not dwell on the traditional need to cut costs starting with white-collar workers, even if the season of sacrifices is certainly not over. But the system is reorienting itself towards a development strategy based on commissions. It is no coincidence that the report devotes ample space to behavioral finance, curated by Umberto Finotto: it is the sign of a greater sensitivity towards the customer. The other line of action concerns Europe, the real battlefield. The game, the real one, is now being played on the European chessboard, especially in terms of rules.
“In recent years – notes Masciandaro, director of the Department of Political Economy at Bocconi – there has been a significant return of the intervention of central banks in matters of Banking Supervision. At first, it seemed that an independent Authority could be created with powers equally strong as the ECB, which deals with Monetary Policy. But, also thanks to the errors of the EBA, the thesis of putting everything under the hat of Frankfurt prevailed”. There is a risk behind this solution, because "monetary policy acts in the short term, the stability needs of the system have other times". We hope that the double requirement does not translate into too heavy a burden for our banks in view of the second round of requests from European Supervision.
