GDP recovering from the lows of 2012 and lively growth, also due to economic factors such as the devaluation of the euro, the decrease in the price of oil and the impact of tourism fromExhibition. From the economic indicators of Lombardy for 2015 there are - albeit timid - signs of recovery. To say it are the data of the Observatory of the Territories, elaborated by a UniCredit study, based on elaborations Promethea, which analyzes the economic situation of the region and the dynamics of the main indicators, also in perspective.
The study highlights, for example, that the region's GDP, which it is worth 22% of the national one, returned to positive territory already last year (+0,4% in Lombardy vs -0,4% in Italy) and is expected to grow further in the coming months. In the current year the Lombardy economy (+1,1%) should grow further, which would allow it to maintain a differential with the national average (+0,5%) of over half a percentage point.
"A positive trend is consolidating for the Lombardy economy and encouraging signs are being gathered for the second half of the year - comments Monica Cellerino, Lombardy Regional Manager of Unicredit – In this scenario, it is therefore essential to push investments and stimulate new credit demand, which is a necessary condition for triggering a new growth path in the country. Therefore I would not like to overemphasize the data of the study, but even if we analyze the added value by sector, we can see signs of optimism, particularly in some sectors that could drive the recovery of the local economy”.
Among the salient data of the Observatory of the Territories also emerges a generalized improvement in the sectoral dynamics of added value. In Lombardia, services (with an added value of 69,2% of the total added value generated in the region in 2013) and industry (with a 25% share) are the sectors that make the greatest contribution to growth in this sense.
According to the Observatory's analysis, the reduction of the contraction of companies active in the region -0,3% (in the third quarter of 2014 there were 815 thousand) and the gap in favor of the national trend increases, which records a tendential decrease of 0,7%.
Already recovered in 2014, in the meantime, internal demand in Lombardy which is expected to tend to strengthen over the course of the 2015 (from 0,1% to 0,7%), recording once again better results than the rest of the country, for which growth is expected (+0,2% from -0,3%).
On the front of export, for 2015 expectations are positive after last year's passage into positive territory (+0,7%), according to the UniCredit study, there will be a significant increase of almost five points (+4,6%). Analyzing the export data by sector, exports from all the main sectors increase, with the exception of metallurgy. In particular, there was a +4,4% in cross-border sales of textile and clothing products; a +3,1% for electrical appliances and a +1,4% for the export of machinery and appliances. Among the main destination markets, the United States (+2,8%), Poland (+7,1%) and Japan (+16,2%) show the greatest increases.
“To continue along the path of development and growth that Lombardy is following – he continues Monica Cellerino – it is therefore essential to push on investments, focusing on exports and innovation: cornerstones for consolidating the recovery path.”
In terms of employment, Lombardy defends itself and stands out positively compared to the national panorama: after the stabilization of the number of employed people (+0,1%) last year (the figure Italy instead marks a -0,5%), the forecast for 2015 is positive: +0,2% for the region against a still negative estimate -0,3% for the country. The sectors in which the greatest increase in full-time employees is recorded are for Lombardy above all services (which account for 66,2% of the total full-time employees in the region in 2013) and industry (with a by 24,1%).
Other news that speaks of the start of the recovery - reports the UniCredit Observatory - concerns the increase in household disposable income, which goes from 1,1% in 2013 to 1,5% in 2014 and for 2015 seems to be projected towards 2%. Meanwhile i consumption are accelerating: if the figure for 2013 was -2,3%, in 2014 it rose to 1,1% and for 2015 the forecast is +1,3%. Lastly, the propensity to save in Lombardy should be noted, which rose by 0,3% in the first 9 months of 2014, compared with -0,3% nationwide.
