Property prices in the main developed countries show a two-speed trend at the end of 2012. In the ranking by variation of prices compared to the previous year, the bottom part of the ranking is for the first time entirely occupied by European countries with Spain in last place preceded by the Netherlands and Ireland. Germany continues to represent an exception: after having recorded almost zero variations throughout the growth phase of real estate prices, the country recorded a +8,8% since 2007 fueled by +2,7% in 2012.
For Germany, market indicators do not signal an imminent bubble risk. In a report published at the end of 2012, the Bundesbank underlines the low risk of such an event and notes that the increase in house prices is mainly due to a reorganization of the portfolio of German households in search of higher yields than those offered by the Bunds.
Of particular interest today is the recovery of US real estate, above all for the possible effects that this would have on consumption. According to recent estimates, the increase in property prices in 2012, associated with the increase in share prices, could lead to an increase in consumption in 2013 that is 0,6% higher than that which would occur considering only the trend in disposable income.
In Italy house prices decreased by around 2012% in 3, but the most significant figure is the decline in sales, which continues at a consistent pace. According to the Agenzia del Territorio, in the third quarter of 2012 the sales of residential units fell by 26,8% y/y (to 95.951 units), after -25,3% in the second quarter and -19,6% in the first. The decline was particularly marked in the northern and central regions (-29,6 and -28,2% respectively) and slightly more contained in the south (-22%).
In our country, the house continues to represent an important portion of household wealth. According to the Bank of Italy, at the end of 2011, 84% of real assets held by households consisted of homes, for a total value of 5.027 billion euro. The value of housing wealth in current terms has experienced almost uninterrupted growth since the mid-XNUMXs.
The survey at the end of 2012 on property prices in the main developed countries shows a two-speed trend. Leading the ranking of increases is Hong Kong where prices during the year rose by 21,8% compared to the previous year and are now 86,8% higher than those at the end of 2007 (year in which the market real estate has begun to show the first important signs of a slowdown), followed by Austria, with +10,1% y/y, and South Africa, where prices have risen by 5% in one year. The most interesting data, however, is represented by the fourth position of the United States, which at the end of 2012 recorded an increase of about 4%. In the latter country, one of the hardest hit by the bursting of the real estate bubble, prices are now 20,5% lower than in 2007. The lower part of the ranking, for the first time, is instead entirely occupied by European countries : Spain appears in last place, which during the year recorded a decisive contraction in quotations (-9,3%) which brings prices 24,3% below the peak reached in 2007; followed by the Netherlands (-6,8%) and Ireland, where prices continue to fall (-5,7%) although they are now almost half those of 2007. Italian real estate prices are also down (about -3%). The so-called "Japanese syndrome" risk countries (France and the United Kingdom) appear in the lower middle part of the ranking, i.e. those in which there has not been a real burst of the bubble and probably there will not be, but which risk to undertake a path, precisely the Japanese one, of slow but protracted decline in prices.
Among European countries, Germany continues to represent an exception; after registering practically zero variations throughout the growth phase of real estate prices, the country recorded +8,8% since 2007, with +2,7% between 2011 and 2012. For Germany, the risk of creating a bubble is however still far away; the comparison of the prices with the market over/under valuation indicators (long-term average of the price/rent and price/income ratios) shows an undervaluation of around 17%. On the contrary, the Hong Kong market (by about 69%, also due to the lack of supply), the Canadian market (78% if calculated with the first index, 34% with the second), Australian, French and , despite the substantial drop in quotations, that of the Netherlands and Spain. In Ireland, the substantial drop in quotations has made the market undervalued by 5%, while in Italy the overvaluation of quotations is equal to 12% if measured with respect to the price-to-income ratio, and almost zero if the comparison is made with the price-to-rent ratio. Finally, in China, a country where there were fears of a bubble inflating over the past two years, the market in 2012 showed signs of stagnation (-0,5%) and in general is still undervalued.
