Estimates of trade growth for the next two years bear witness to the consolidation of a new phase in the world globalization process, much more contained than in the past. The natural loss of factors supporting trade (such as the exhaustion of the driving effect of global value chains) starting from the 2008 crisis has been joined by other structural elements such as the multiplication of protectionist measures and the abandonment of the attempt to create global trade agreements in favor of regional ones. Among the new trade agreements in the making, the most significant always involve the United States as the main negotiator. Among the most debated the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The main feature of these two agreements is the exclusion of China.
According to some, this would indicate the US willingness to impose its presence more clearly in international trade. In recent months, world trade routes have also been influenced by strong changes in the exchange rates of some currencies. The impact of the depreciation of the euro on export prices is now lower than in the past, particularly in Germany, while Italy and Spain show higher values. From the first quarter of 2014 to April 2015 the euro depreciated by 21% about against the dollar; in the same period the volumes exported by all the countries of the euro area to the USA grew by 15,4%. In the first quarter of the year, the United States' share of Italian exports reached 7,5% thanks to a 39,4% y/y growth in sales by Italian companies to the United States.
With the exception of coke and refined petroleum products, double-digit variations were recorded for all sectors, however the +115,8% y/y recorded by the means of transport sector stands out. Also relevant was the export growth metals (+60%), pharmaceutical items (+39,8%) and food products (+20%). Between January and March, US imports from Italy increased by 9,2% in dollars, the third highest value among all supplier countries.
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Attachments: Focus no. 20 – 05 June 2015.pdf
