La China closed 2014 with a growth rate of 7,4%about three and a half times that of the rest of the world excluding China (2,2%). However, last year's final balance is lower than that of the previous two years (7,7%), the long-term development trend (+9,7% in the decade 2000-10) and is the lowest in the last 25 years. This slowdown raises many questions, obviously starting with its duration/nature: temporary tarnishing or structural slowdown?
In terms of the economic situation, there is another aspect to consider loss of momentum in the industrial sector, afflicted by production overcapacity and forced to deal with environmental problems. At the same time, fixed investments are slowing down, still growing by 2014% in 15,3.
For the first time in the last four years net exports have returned to offer a positive contribution to the economic dynamics. The current account surplus stands at around 2% of GDP, confirming the structural nature of the adjustment of the external accounts (at 10% in 2007).
Overall it is macroeconomic scenario of China is positive or in any case not negative, although not without shaded areas. The novelties of economic significance intersect with transformation processes of a more structural nature.
China has long started a process of enrichment and refinement of its industrial strategy, a turning point that has found multiple forms of implementation: from the marked increase in R&D expenditure to the modernization/strengthening of infrastructures.
Second, it is striving to win leadership roles in high-value businesses where it had little presence just a few years ago. It is also committed to increasing its productivity, an achievable goal given the extraordinary investment capacity demonstrated so far.
Another argument in support of a positive vision of Chinese development continues to be the consideration that this country will represent one of the most dynamic areas of global demand. Chinese demand will be driven by multiple circumstances but in particular urban development.
- foreign investments (incoming and outgoing) will contribute to a greater extent than in the past in shaping the country's economic profile.
