After Istat, Confindustria and Banca d'Italia, also the International Monetary Fund revised upwards the estimates of growth of Italy, leading them to +1,3% for 2017, or 0,5 percentage point higher than the April forecast, et al +1% for 2018, i.e. +0,2 percentage points compared to previous estimates. According to the update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the Italian acceleration comes in the context of a global recovery that is gaining momentum, despite the slowdown in the United States offset in part by more sustained growth than expected in Euroland.
“Growth estimates for 2017 have been revised upwards for several euro area countries, including France, Germany, Italy e Spain, for which growth in the first quarter of 2017 was above expectations”.
The perspective is different Britain, for which the estimate on GDP for this year, expected at 0,3%, has been revised downwards by 1,7% compared to April. The IMF explains how economic activity was "weaker than expected in the first quarter". Furthermore, observed the Fund's chief economist, Maurice Obstfeld, “the ultimate impact of Brexit, ie Britain's exit from the European Union, remains uncertain”.
But the most abrupt braking is that of the United States: GDP was revised downwards from 2,3% to 2,1% in 2017 and from 2,5% to 2,1% in 2018 as Donald Trump's administration's fiscal policies are less looming in the short term expansive than expected.
as to China, now according to the IMF, GDP will grow by 6,7% in 2017 and 6,4% in 2018, respectively 0,1 and 0,2 percentage points more than forecast in April.
The estimate on the Russia: +1,4% for both this year and next.
For the rest of the BRICS, the IMF cuts growth by 0,1%. Brazil for 2017, to +0,3%, and by 0,4% for 2018, to 1,3%.
Estimates unchanged forIndia (+7,2% this year and +7,7% next). For the South Africa 2017 growth was revised up by 0,2 percentage points to 1,0%, while 2018 growth was cut by 0,4 percentage points to 1,2%.
