Il Italian GDP will grow by 0,7% in 2015 and by 1,2% in 2016. This is stated by the International Monetary Fund, in the update of his World Economic Outlook. The IMF estimates essentially confirm the figures contained in the report published on May 18, when Washington technicians had revised upwards the numbers of the Italian economy.
As regards global growth, the IMF has estimated one growth of 3,3% for 2015, down 0,2% from the April forecast. In 2016, however, we should see an increase of 3,8%. The cut in estimates for the US economy, expected to increase by 2,5% in 2015 against the 3,1% of the April estimate, weighs on the downward revision of global growth.
As for the Eurozone, the IMF forecasts growth of 1,5% this year and 1,7% in 2016. The German economy is expected to grow by 1,6% this year and 1,7% in 2016, the French one by 1,2% and 1,7% respectively, while the Spanish one will score +3,1% in 2015 and +2,5% in 2016.
At the moment, the impact of developments in the Eurozone seems to be limited Greece. According to the IMF, at the moment, no "significant contagion" has occurred and the market reaction has been "relatively calm, with partly the decline in the prices of risky assets and a modest increase in the prices of sovereign bonds considered safe havens".
If the consequences for the rest of the currency union are therefore limited, according to the IMF "in Greece, the developments that are taking shape will probably have a much heavier impact relative to previous expectations". The Washington document, at the moment, does not provide growth forecasts for Athens.
