The International Monetary Fund raises its estimates of Italian GDP, but confirms the alert on NPLs in banks' stomachs.
These are the most relevant data that can be read on the "World Economic Outlook, according to which Italian growth continues to strengthen: after +0,9% in 2016, Italian GDP will rise by 1,5% in 2017 and by 1,1, 2018% in 0,2, i.e. 0,1 and XNUMX percentage points higher than the July estimates.
As regards public debt, according to estimates, in 2017 the increase is to 133% of GDP after 132,6% in 2016. The IMF forecasts a decrease in debt to 131,4% in 2018 and 120,1, 2022% in 2,2. The deficit will drop this year to 2,4% from 2016% in 1,3, to then settle at 2018% in 131,6. In the update note to the Def, the government estimated a debt at 2017 130% in 2018 and XNUMX% in XNUMX.
However, the banks continue to cause concern. Despite the progress made – writes the Fund – «without a more concerted effort to clean up banks' balance sheets and improve their profitability, concerns about financial stability and fears of a vicious circle between weak demand, and budgets. If political risks were to re-emerge, for example, the increase in long-term interest rates that would accompany them would worsen public debt dynamics, especially if inflation were to remain low».
