A "very robust action" by governments is needed to counter the slowdown in growth and fight the seeds of protectionism. On the eve of the G-20 summit in China, the Monetary Fund breaks the delay and launches a precise alarm on the slowdown of the economy. At this point, a downward revision of the estimate of global growth (already forecast at 3,1%) seems obvious.
It also slows down the US economy, so far the only development locomotive in action. In short, the feeling is that the global cycle has been losing strength in recent weeks: not exactly the right context for a rate increase. But it should not be forgotten that the Fed gives more weight to employment, as Stanley Fischer has pointed out more than once, than to the state of manufacturing. So today's data remains fundamental, if not for a move to September 21, to determine the probabilities that the market will attribute in the coming weeks to an increase by the end of the year: analysts estimate that the unemployment figure will settle at 4,8, XNUMX%.
This context explains the mixed start to September. Use macro data on the agenda today do not shift the propensity of investors. The ISM manufacturing index for August was below expectations, coming in at 49,4 against an estimate of 52. Non-farm productivity in the second quarter fell by 0,6%, in line with expectations from -0,5% of the previous quarter. Costs per work unit also rose in the second quarter by 4,3%, above the estimated +2,1%, from 2% in the previous quarter. The requests for weekly unemployment benefits were better than expected, reaching 263, down from 265 the previous week.
Il Petroleum back down: Brent and Wti lose about 2,5%. At Piazza Affari Saipem made a successful debut on the bond market, placing its first issue, in two tranches, for a total of one billion euro against requests for six. Eni has successfully drilled and tested the Zohr 5x well in Egypt and estimates it can produce up to 7 million cubic meters of gas per day.
Abrupt turnaround for the European stock exchanges in the afternoon. Piazza Affari closed down by 0,1% to 16.983 points (from +1,7% in the morning to 17.253). In Frankfurt, the Dax fell by 0,8%. Paris drops by 0,3%. Only Madrid was positive (+0,2%). London -0,6%. The yield on the Italian 17,30-year bond stood at 1,18% around 1,19 after having reached 125%, its highest since the end of July. The spread between the BTP and the Bund trades at 126 basis points, after reaching XNUMX basis points, the highest since mid-August.
Investor attention will focus today on the data on US employed persons and on the definitive reading of the Italian GDP for the second quarter. The second reading of the European manufacturing PMIs for August brought modest revisions in aggregate (51.7 from 51.8 in the Flash data) but some local surprises. This is the case of Italy, which has sensationally disappointed (49.8 from the previous 51.2), returning below the stagnation threshold. Still on the subject of SMEs, the robust data and above expectations of the United Kingdom (53.3 from the previous 48.3) should be noted. It seems clear that the weak pound has already had its effects on local manufacturing, unlike the outcome of the referendum.
FIAT CHRYSLER
Germany has found an abnormal increase in emissions in four models of Fiat Chrysler. Berlin, according to what emerges from some German government documents, accuses the Italian-American car manufacturer of using an illegal device to shut down the systems that regulate harmful emissions.
A source from the Ministry of Infrastructure reports that FCA cars comply with European emissions standards and "there is no communication" sent by the German authorities to Italy on the matter.
Car registrations in Italy rose 20,12% to 71.576 vehicles in August, according to data from the Transport Ministry. The Fiat Chrysler Group recorded a +24,1% to 20.697 vehicles, with a market share of 28,92%.
Fiat Chrysler reported a 3% rise in US auto sales to 196.756 vehicles in August, with Ford and GM posting low-single-digit declines. For FCA, retail sales are equal to 150.153 vehicles, fleets to 46.603.
BANKS
“Bank stocks remain under pressure, with particular tension around Italian banks”, reads the IMF report ahead of the G20. The report focuses on the problems posed to banks' financial health by the large amount of non-performing loans (estimated at around 8% of Eurozone GDP in mid-2015), weak growth and low interest rates. According to the fund, "various policies can now be used to support reforms and contain risk."
Particularly the solution of the Npl problem "should be accelerated through a combination of tighter supervision, insolvency reform and the facilitation of secondary markets on distressed debt”, a process which can benefit from continued macroeconomic support. For the IMF, "protecting the stability of the banking system is a priority".
As already anticipated by the rumors, they are undermined by the Eurostoxx 50 Generali (+ 1%), Unicredit (+ 1,3%) and Carrefour (+0,7%). Bank Carige (-2,2%) is preparing to start the sale of non-performing loans and is thinking of "a careful segmentation of non-performing loans to optimize sales results", writes Il Sole 24 Ore. B.Pop. Emilia (+1,8%) is the best blue chip.
Ps -1%: according to La Stampa, the managing director Fabrizio Viola will manage the operation to secure the institution with the capital increase and only after that will he leave the leadership of the Sienese bank. For Il Sole 24 Ore, however, the banks in the underwriting syndicate should take stock of the situation between today and tomorrow in a series of scheduled conference calls. Corriere della Sera talks about the summit in Milan. The hypothesis is to propose the voluntary conversion of the subordinated bonds of institutional investors to reduce the capital increase to 3,5 billion euros from 5, adds il Sole. The potential audience is 5 billion, of which 4 are placed with institutions and one to retail.
TELECOM
Telecom Italy it accelerates on Thursday at the close, gaining 1%, to 0,822 euros. The CEO Flavio Cattaneo expects an important improvement in the accounts of Tim Brasil in the third quarter. Tim Brasil is the most important asset of the telephone company. By 30 September, the group will also formalize its farewell to the project for the new headquarters which should have been set up in Rome in the Eur district with cost savings of around 120 million euros to add to the already planned target of 150 million savings.
Leo Movie unchanged. The press welcomed the musical "La La Land" with applause in Venice, of which Leone Film is the distributor on the Italian film market. The company has another film in competition, "Light Between the Ocean," and one out of competition, "Hacksaw Ridge." In the first quarter of 2016, Italian cinema achieved a 46% market share compared to 25% in the first 6 months of 2015 and 33% in 2014.
