The coronavirus emergency plunges the planet into the worst economic crisis in 90 years since the Great Depression of 1930. In 2020, the whole world will plunge into an unprecedented recession, while Italy will be one of the most affected nations ever, with the GDP that could collapse by more than 9 percentage points. This is the dramatic prediction contained in the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund, a document which this year has an emblematic title: "Great Lockdown".
IMF: -3% FOR WORLD GDP
Global gross domestic product will fall by 2020% in 3 and rCompared to the estimates published in January, the drop will be 6,3%. The coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 21 will bring total losses of 9 trillion dollars, a figure higher than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. This was stated by the chief economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, underlining that for the first time since the Great Depression of the 30s the recession involves all economies, both advanced and developing ones. "This - the economist reiterates - is a truly global crisis since no country is spared" with "particularly strong" impacts for countries that depend "on tourism, travel, hospitality and entertainment".
To understand the real extent of the recession, just think that in 2009, in the midst of the Lehman Brothers crisis, global GDP fell by 0,6%, while in 2008 the drop was 0,1%.
Recovery should then arrive in 2021, with the IMF forecasting global GDP to grow by 5,8%. But the conditional is a must given that "the risks to the outlook are to the downside". For these predictions to come true, the pandemic will have to disappear as early as the second half of 2020. If this were not the case, world GDP could drop by "a further 3% in 2020". Not only that, "if the pandemic continues in 2021" the GDP "could drop by a further 8% compared to our baseline scenario", says Gopinath who then launches an invitation to governments: "We are facing a strong uncertainty about what will happen . Domestic and international policy responses need to be strong, deployed rapidly and scaled as data emerges."
PROSPECTS FOR ITALY
Italy will pay a very high price. Our economy will collapse by 2020% in 9,1, while in 2021 it could rise by 4,8%. Compared to January 2020, the estimates on the performance of our country in 2020 have been revised downwards by 9,6%, while those for 2021 have been raised by 4,1%. In the Eurozone only Greece will do worse than us, where the GDP could contract by 10%. The Italian unemployment rate is also on the rise, rising to 2020% in 12,7 from 10% in 2019. In 2021, however, it should return to 10,5%.
“The economic fallout reflects acute shocks in particular sectors and for this reason politics must implement targeted budgetary and monetary measures to support households and businesses. The budgetary responses in the affected countries have been rapid and substantial in several advanced economies (such as Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the United States)" says the IMF, which then seems to support the Italian line in Europe : "Significant European support to countries hit particularly hard by the epidemic should complement their national efforts, which would help them to support the financing needs that arise from this very large common shock that came entirely from abroad". And again: "Strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including financial aid to countries that have action limits and are caught between the health shock and that of finding resources".
EVEN THE EUROZONE'S GDP COLLAPSES
The repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic will be very heavy in the entire Eurozone, for which GDP is expected to fall by 7,5% (+4,7% in 2021). At the level of individual Member States, Germany's economy will contract by 2020% in 7, that of France by 7,2%. -8% for Spain.
Outside the eurozone, a drop of 6,5% is estimated for the United Kingdom, while on the other side of the Atlantic the US will leave 5,9 percent of GDP on the ground.
Plus sign for China, but growth will slow to 1,2% (+9%) in 2021.
