I like to think that we are in the midst of an epochal challenge, imposed by change. With so many threats, but also opportunities. Just a few months ago, I am referring to the economy of Tuscany and in particular of metropolitan city of Florence, we were experiencing very strong GDP growth (+6,4% at the end of 2021, +4,5% the estimate for 2022) driven by exports (+27% on 2020 and even +6,3% on 2019), despite the weakness of domestic consumption (-5% in the last quarter of the year). Today the situation is reversed: growth estimates for the current year have been drastically reduced (+2,5%) and exports are slowing down due to transport difficulties and the boom in energy, fuel and raw material costs, phenomena accentuated by the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Florence restarts with tourism: domestic consumption and employment are also doing well
In the face of this clearly worsening scenario, there is a decisive one to be recorded restart of tourism incoming, with holiday resorts and cities of art taken by storm in recent weeks, like and perhaps to an even greater extent than before the pandemic.
Over the space of a quarter, the parameter reversed: exports suffer, i domestic consumption they are growing significantly. The forecasts of Florentine companies on the side ofoccupation they are good, with almost 33 hires expected in the May-July period, a sharp increase also compared to 2019 (+21%). The problem, again based on the indications of the companies (Excelsior-Unioncamere survey), is the difficulty of finding on the labor market the professional roles necessary, difficulty rose to 41% in the Florentine metropolitan area: four percentage points more than in May 2019.
The great resignations also hit Florence
Despite 11 thousand official unemployed (6%). Added to this apparently contradictory scenario are the uncertainties associated with the phenomena I mentioned earlier: the cost of energy, supply difficulties, the rise in inflation and the now announced, consequent monetary tightening. How will all of this impact our future? Much will depend on the duration of the war and also on the Italian and international health situation after the end of the summer. But, in the meantime, I can't help but notice some sociological changes which, in turn, are the bearers of great innovations.
Last year in Tuscany there were 136 thousand voluntary resignation from permanent contracts. An unprecedented figure, which is confirmed in the other Italian regions, and which goes hand in hand with the difficulties of the labor market with regard to finding workers with even a medium-low profile (not only, therefore, for high-skill figures), such as waiters , bartenders, cleaners. For businesses this is a big problem and a challenge. We are facing epochal changes and we will have to be able to interpret them, because people have realized that working to live is different from living to work. And, evidently, he is putting it into practice. The minimum salary can't help and the problem ofsalary adjustment will have to be addressed by the Government with the reduction of the tax wedge. However, the question goes further.
Businesses have to adapt to change
I don't think that those who voluntarily leave their jobs do so because the salary is too low. Instead, those who want and can change their habits do it. This is happening in Florence, as in the rest of Italy. Today the world is open, without barriers and the discovery of smart working it helped recover familiar spaces, it made it clear that we had lost ourselves behind convictions that proved to be fragile. I say it for myself too: I have dedicated my whole life to work, but I have not enjoyed my family. I am convinced that the one in place is a radical change and we need to figure out how to help businesses respond. The digitization of society, not only of the economy, is the decisive step, which allows anyone to sell and hire staff even on the other side of the world, and the Chambers of Commerce system, through the network of 80 digital enterprise points (Pid) on the national territory, is doing its part.
Florence, which historically has a predominantly economy manufacturing, based on large and above all small businesses and quality craftsmanship, with a strong impact of exports (around 50% of GDP) and an important weight of tourist activities but not as preponderant as perceived in the collective imagination (10% approximately half of manufacturing), has all the credentials to ride this change in compliance with the new development paradigms, linked to respect for the environment, the circularity of the economy, gender equality, and also the reorganization of flows tourism and their impact on the city.
All-round quality has made the history of Florence great and can also make its future great. It is the only factor for be competitive compared to the rest of the world.
°°°°The author is the President of the Florence Chambers of Commerce and Vice President of the national Unioncamere and President and CEO of BaseDigitale Group
