The pressure of the strong euro (1,441 against the dollar this morning in Tokyo) conditions the market scene 48 hours before the G20 in Moscow. In Europe, France, after rejecting its request for interventions to curb the revaluation of the single currency, yesterday received the derogation which was denied to Greece at the time. Countries that have made a concrete commitment to consolidating their accounts with structural recovery measures could benefit from an extension of the time frame for the reduction of the deficit in the event of a sudden worsening of the growth trend. So writes the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs Olli Rehn in a letter sent to the finance ministers of the euro area and a copy also to the governor of the ECB Mario Draghi. The letter does not mention France, which just today through the voice of Prime Minister Ayrault admitted the possibility that this year the deficit will not fall to 3% of GDP.
Meanwhile, news arrives from Tokyo that the Japanese economy ended the year in recession: -0,4% GDP in 2012, -0,1% in the fourth quarter, -0,4%. It is the third consecutive year in the red: Shinzo Abe shows up in Moscow with valid arguments to defend his expansive policy even at the cost of a strong depreciation of the yen.
Barack Obama in his speech on the state of the Union announced the start of negotiations to create a common customs area between the US and the EU. Meanwhile, on the source of internal politics, he is pressing for an increase in the minimum wage and interventions on welfare, starting with free kindergartens. A strategy certainly closer to Japan than to German rigour.
THE LISTS
Tokyo's run resumes +0,60%. To favor the bull is the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of Japan, the last led by the governor Shirakawa, confirmed the purchases of bonds to reflate the economy. Hong Kong reopens its doors with a robust rise +0,7%, to the highest in 18 months. Shanghai is still closed for the New Year holidays. Contrasted Wall Street: Dow Jones down by 0,26% and again below the psychological threshold of 14.000 points, S&P500 +0,06%, after having reached its highest level since the beginning of November 2007. The Nasdaq rises by 0,33 %.
Positive changes for Paris and London +0,3%, Frankfurt +0,7% and Madrid +0,9%. Reassured by the successful outcome of the long and very long-term Btp auction, the Milan Stock Exchange closed up for the second consecutive day, the Ftse Mib index gained 0,41% to 16.712 points.
The Btp Bund spread fell to 269 basis points (-18 basis points). In two days it was down more than 30 basis points. The yield of the ten-year BTP is 4,37% (-13) and that of the German Bund at 1,67% (+5).
BREAKING NEWS: CREDIT AGRICOLE BEATS INTESA
Judicial duel in Manhattan between Crédit Agricole, formerly a significant shareholder of Ca' de Sass, and Banca Intesa. The reason for the dispute is a CDO, worth 180 million, sold in 2006 by Calyon, an Agricole company, to Intesa. It was a "toxic" derivative structured by Magnetar Capital with clauses unknown to the buyer. Hence the lawsuit brought by Intesa. But too late. According to District Judge Robert W. Sweet the subpoena occurred 20 days after the statute of limitations.
INSIDE BUSINESS PLACE
Alessandro Pansa, former director and general manager, has been appointed managing director of Finmeccanica, taking over all the responsibilities up to now in the hands of the president and managing director, Giuseppe Orsi, now under arrest. Admiral Guido Venturoni, senior adviser, was also appointed vice president.
The decline of Finmeccanica -4,1% continued yesterday too. Today it will be possible to operate short on the stock because Consob has not confirmed the prohibition of the "short". Meanwhile, India has suspended payment for the order of 12 helicopters: AgustaWestland could be included in the "black list" and the contract cancelled. Fitch announced that it has placed the rating under review with a view to a downgrade.
The rise in Piazza Affari was fueled by oil, in particular by Eni +1% and Saipem +0,6% which presented fourth quarter data. Banca Popolare di Milano reversed course and lost 3,6% from +7% at the start of the session. The bank communicated that the works for the transformation into a joint-stock company have been started.
Banco Popolare +0,8% and Mediobanca +1%. Understanding and Unicredit -0,3%. Monte Paschi-1,2%. Strongly up on expectations of a forthcoming entry (March) in the basket of blue chips, Fondiaria Sai +6%. Unipol rose by 5%. Positive session for the Agnelli team. Fiat and Fiat Industrial closed up 1,3% while Exor, which announced the conversion of its preference shares into ordinary shares, gained 3%.
Analysts' reports: Buzzi Unicem +3%, the cement company's stock benefited from a promotion of
Goldman Sachs, from sell to neutral. Prysmian +2,1%: Credit Suisse started hedging yesterday with an Outperform rating and a target of 19 euros. Lottomatics +1,7%. The company communicated the preliminary results for 2012. Deutsche Bank raised its target to 18,5 euros from 16,6 euros, confirming the Hold opinion.
