The legislature is in its last stages and the caretaker government is starting to flounder, also because by now the strange majority, pressed by the next electoral deadline, is no longer holding. The parties (even the new ones like 5 stars) are struggling to field credible coalitions. Meanwhile, we don't know when or how to go and vote.
Let's start with the when, which is closely related to the how. The idea that at this point it would be better to go and vote in February is gaining ground. Prolonging the Legislature to the end risks further stressing the relationship between the government and the majority. All while a significant test of regional elections (Lazio, Lombardia and Molise) is already expected in February. But to vote sooner, a new electoral law would be needed. On this Napolitano seems adamant: if the Porcellum remains, the parties can forget the early dissolution, even if it's only for a few weeks. Indeed, the hypothesis of a possible message from the Quirinale to the Chambers on the electoral question is making headway: a way to put the parties in formal notice on this matter in the most solemn way.
So let's see where we are on electoral reform. In recent months more steps have been taken backwards than forwards. One node is preferences: the UDC wants them, the Pd absolutely does not want them, which says it fears a Fiorito effect (they would increase the exchange rate and corruption); it is not clear what the PDL wants, engaged in the Senate to support the preferences, while Berlusconi stated in a very recent interview that he does not want them.
Result, there are several hypotheses in the field: return to the constituencies appreciated by the Democratic Party, mixed system of constituencies-preferences, maintenance of the Porcellum, strengthening of the Porcellum (half of the appointed parliamentarians, the other half chosen with preferences, a way to add up the effect Calderoli with a Fiorito effect). But there is another problem and it concerns the majority premium. If the Porcellum rules were to be kept, a 30% coalition could eventually have 55% of the deputies elected. And the vote in Sicily has shown that such a hypothesis could also occur. Hence the need to find agreement on a minimum threshold (40%) so that the majority bonus can be triggered. As can be seen, these are complex problems to be resolved in a few days between parties that are already glaring at each other.
Let us now look at the situation of the parties. The crisis of the PDL it was confirmed with some aggravating circumstances by the Sicilian vote and beyond. Berlusconi, now in obvious difficulty also due to the internal consensus on his formation, is debating between the old party and a possible new party. He wonders if he will be able to solve his dilemmas after having rested in Kenya. In the meantime, after having attacked the government at Villa Gernetto, he seems to have reconsidered, and in the most recent interview he said that he will not campaign against Monti. Meanwhile, his party, which is still the PDL, is trying to run the primaries. It could be the hour of independence for Angelino Alfano who, despite everything, is the favourite, but who must beware of the friendly fire of the Cavaliere's Amazons and the hypothesis of unpacking (a possible new Berlusconi party).
IN THE HEART Casini seems tempted again by the agreement with the Pd, after this worked in Sicily, at least to win the presidency of the Region by a small amount. In the meantime, new political players are appearing, but they are struggling to come to an agreement with each other: for the time being Giannino and the liberal economists continue to oppose (on a programmatic basis) the ideas of Stopping the decline to future Italy and Independents for Italy.
As for the Democratic Party, which the polls show is growing, the primaries are certainly not a gala dinner: with Renzi who raises the level of confrontation with secretary Bersani every day, and who in any case fills squares and theaters. Certainly the secretary has overcome two important obstacles: the vote in Sicily and the acquittal of Vendola could have opened up new difficulties for him and this was not the case. Now, if he wins the primaries, he will first have to reorganize left field and then seek an agreement with Casini. Difficult task.
Of course in the field there is also Beppe Grillo with his 5 Star Movement. The success in Sicily (the movement is the first party) was undeniable and overwhelming. To the point that the newspapers speak of a candidacy for prime minister of Grillo himself. Which, however, some misstep could also do it. After the vote in Sicily, Grillo took it out on a regional councilor of his movement, guilty of having gone to a televised debate.
He did it by attacking women, even those of 5 stars, with crossroads jokes that evoked points g and orgasms, which they would solicit with appearances in television lounges. Finally an unpredictable opening a Di Pietro. Precisely on the day when the former prosecutor, tested by the revelations of Report on his real estate properties, announced that the IDV was heading towards decline, and while most of this party asked for steps backwards and a congress, Grillo nominated Di Pietro for the Quirinal : the advancing new that merges with the retreating old.
