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Confidence and consumption drop and scare stock markets fearing recession: Lagarde and Powell speak out

Expectations for new interventions by Lagarde and Powell at the Sintra summit, but markets fear recession and reverse course downwards

Confidence and consumption drop and scare stock markets fearing recession: Lagarde and Powell speak out

Taurus drops three of a kind, but the markets, on the eve of the bankruptcy balance sheets of the first half year, don't trust him. Hence the downward correction which, starting from Wall Street, continues this morning on the Asian markets. The reversal was triggered by the confirmation of the low propensity to purchase of consumers in the United States: the confidence index slows down and reaches its lowest level since the beginning of 2021.

Sharp fall of US blue chips

The reaction of Wall Street was immediate, slipping into negative territory: S&P500 -2%, Nasdaq -3%. The Dow Jones closed at -1,6%; the blue chip index was up 1,4% until the data was released.

Wall Street futures are around parity this morning following the worst session in the last two weeks.

Hong Kong down sharply, Chinese stock markets down

Asian stock markets are also losing blows, yesterday protagonists of a convincing rally after the news of the easing of the quarantine in China. Tokyo's Nikkei loses more than 1%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,9%, Hang Seng of Hong Kong -1,6%. Kospi of Seoul -1,5%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai -0,5%.

In the wake of these signals, a negative opening is also looming in Europe: the future on the Eurostoxx loses 0,5%. Wall Street futures are around parity.

Frankfurt will monitor spreads. The gap drops to 191 points

In short, the good indications coming from international leaders were not enough to bring good humor back to the price lists. Yet there have been at least three positive signs: the Chinese turnaround, the unity of purpose among the big names that emerged at the G7 on the oil price cap front (with a glimmer of light for gas) and, above all, the confirmation of the turnaround at the ECB .

Christine Lagarde seems to have squared the circle. The ECB's forthcoming bond-buying programme, Sintra argued in his speech, "will curb a messy widening of government bond yield spreads in the eurozone, while maintaining pressure on governments to keep their governments in order." balance sheets". Without going into details, the ECB president assured that the launch of the European Central Bank's bond purchase program "will reduce the increase in borrowing costs for vulnerable Eurozone countries which will have to comply with light constraints, i.e. economic recommendations of the European Commission that countries must already comply with in order to obtain EU funding”.

Piazza Affari over 22 points. German confidence crumbles

The Italian secondary sector welcomed the words of the president, who today will perform in a round table alongside Jerome Powell. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of equal duration falls to 191 basis points (-3,27%), but the rising rates anticipate the next increase in the cost of money in Europe, the first for 11 years: the yield of the BTP rises to 3,54%, that of the German Bund to 1,63% (from +1,54%).

Consumer confidence is also falling in Europe: France and Germany have slipped to their lowest levels since 2014.

The European stock exchanges closed up: EuroStoxx50 index +0,3%, Milan +0,8%, slightly above 22 points, Frankfurt +0,4%.

Williams (New York Fed): there will be no recession

The latest statements by central bankers bring back some optimism. Both New York Fed Chairman John Williams and San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly have downplayed the danger of an imminent economic recession. Both explained that the economic framework is capable of withstanding the vigorous monetary tightening undertaken by the central bank: there is a serious possibility of a slowdown, with a low risk of negative growth for a quarter, but nothing more.

Oil down, gas up

Brent and WTI oil are down 0,5%, first decline after three sessions of gains between 2% and 3%. Fears of a slowdown in global demand dwarfed news that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates signaled they were nearing maximum extraction capacity.

The price of gas in the USA rose by 1,8%, gas in Europe moved little yesterday, closing at 130 Euro Mwh.

The Turkish lira consolidates the 5% rebound recorded over the week. Ankara vetoed the request of Finland and Sweden to join NATO, after the three nations have agreed to protect each other's security. The turning point came yesterday after four hours of talks, just before the start of the NATO summit in Madrid.

Autogrill-Dufry towards agreement. Tomorrow the De Nora IPO

The negotiation for the card-for-card transfer of 50,1% of Autogrill controlled by Edizione to the Swiss Dufry, leader in airport sales, seems to have reached its final stage. Edizione will become the first partner.

The price of Industrie De Nora shares for listing on Piazza Affari starting tomorrow has been set at 13,50 euros. The price is the minimum of the range between 13,50 and 16,50 euros per share. Based on the offer price, the company's market capitalization at the start of trading will be 2.723 million euros. The Ministry of the Economy is in the process of approving a public guarantee on a bank loan of approximately 2 billion for Telecom Italia.

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