AMERICAN EXPORTS INSTILL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXCHANGES THE ECB'S MINISTRY OF JULY IS NOT SCARY
The growth of American exports in April, never so high compared to GDP. it had the effect of a panacea for overseas markets. Not only did Wall Street interrupt a negative cycle that had lasted for seven sessions, but the rebound also produced its effects on the mega auction of 13-year T-bonds worth 5 billion dollars: the recovery of the stock market, down 4,238 percent compared at the highs in March, was reflected in lower demand and an increase in yields which rose to 4,216 per cent (against a forecast of 40,4). In short, the risk of a recession is not so obvious. But another trend also emerges from the auction: the demand from indirect bidders”, including foreign central banks (especially China) dropped by two percentage points from 38,4 to 1,8 per cent. The push coming from America was also felt in Europe where the sectors most closely linked to the economic cycle rose above all, such as the automotive sector (Stoxx +1,8%) and raw materials (+1,5%). Oil products also did well (+XNUMX%). No surprises, meanwhile, from Frankfurt. The ECB leaves rates unchanged, confirms its outright no to the German-style Greek debt restructuring hypothesis but raises its estimates on growth in Euroland. Jean-Claude Trichet promises "strong vigilance" over inflation, which is tantamount to announcing a rate hike for July. The euro weakens, a sign that the markets feared a turnaround as early as June. Finally, the directorate of the ECB expressed a favorable opinion on the candidacy of Mario Draghi, the last formal step for the governor on the road to Framcoforte. But Trichet himself reiterated that "the directorate members remain in office for eight years". That is, it will not be the ECB that will push Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi towards the exit to respect the geopolitical balance at the top of the bank.
BOOM AIR. KOREA RAISES RATES SEOUL AND TAIWAN PROMOTED TO MSCI BASKET
The new world balances are making themselves felt. Yesterday, in fact, Morgan Stanley decided to review the basket of the MSCI emerging index, a point of reference for the ETF industry, promoting Korea and Taiwan to the rank of developed countries. The operation, which has complex tax implications destined to condition trade in the coming weeks, concerns the Seoul (14 per cent of the world) and Taiwan (11 per cent) lists. Meanwhile, on the wave of news arriving from the USA and China (the trade surplus grew less than expected, due to the 28,4% increase in imports), the Asian price lists experienced a positive session. The Nikkei 225 index grew by 0,4 percent, less than the Korean Kospi (+0,5%), up despite the announcement of a quarter point increase in rates to 3,25% by the central bank to keep prices under control. In Hong Kong (-0,4% for the Hang Seng index) the first flops were recorded on the IPO front: Huaneng Renewables, the Chinese leader in wind power, lost 9,6% on its debut on the list. Double speed session in Shanghai. Losing blows of car manufacturers (-1,8% Saic) in the face of the first slowdown in the market after 24 months of uninterrupted growth. Real estate stocks pick up again: Poly Ral Estate, the second largest Chinese company in the sector, announced that it had doubled its transaction volume in May.
FIAT, LIKES THE CONSOLIDATION WITH CHRYSLER, PROFITS MAY DOUBLE. AND THE FLYING TITLE
The German auto industry is in full swing. The big names, starting with Volkswagen, are asking the unions to compress the summer holidays to meet the demand arriving from the Far East, which, moreover, is showing the first signs of decline, starting with China. On the contrary, the PSA question opens up in France, given the decision of the transalpine group to initiate the closure of some plants. Meanwhile, analysts are making the first calculations on the consolidated pro forma of Fiat - Chrysler. The data that emerges is that the consolidated profit could almost double compared to the accounts for 2010, thanks to the contribution of Chrysler. Even the total debt, which could be between 5 and 7 billion (against the 8,56 billion of the 2010 pro forma debt) seems absolutely sustainable, also because the capex could be lower than anticipated, also due to the delays in the launch of Fabbrica Italia. In short, a consolidated profit of more than one billion euros is not excluded, capable of driving the increase in capitalization, today around 9 billion.
BANKS. MEDIOBANCA UNDER FIRE FOR UBI MASSIAH'S PENDANT ARRIVES
The financial sector continues to be targeted. Mediobanca ended up under fire yesterday, leaving 3,51 percent on the ground. It is not possible to understand the reason for such a massive loss, also because the rumors about a particular commitment of Piazzetta Cuccia on the Bpm front have no basis. Perhaps the key lies in the statistics. Since the beginning of the year Mediobanca is the third best stock in the Stoxx index of European banks, with an increase of 7,7%. Only Swedbank and Bnp Paribas did better. The European index has fallen by 6% since the beginning of the year. Therefore, it is legitimate to imagine that in a climate of general disaffection with the banks, investors have gone to look for, in order to sell them, the securities that have performed better so far. Still on the banking front, it should be noted yesterday the demotion of Credem by Banca Leonardo: the target price drops from 4,8 to 4,6 euros, an underweight rating. The opinion is linked to the prospect of an increase in the cost of funding, destined to penalize the bank more than anticipated by previous estimates. Even if the volume of loans is growing at a good pace - bringing a ratio of loans to deposits of 119% - the new expensive funding products could put pressure on spreads. Today the bank's stock is down 1,8%. On the contrary, the most targeted stocks in past sessions have risen: Bpm and Mps in the lead. The UBI also rebounds, in the midst of the capital increase. The psychological support of the purchases by the managing director Victor Massiah is also useful. Psychological support, in truth, because Dr. Massiah only bought 15 securities for a value of around 65 euros. On the insurance front, the recovery of Unipol after the slide the day before is significant. Deutsche Bank confirmed the buy rating on the company after the conferences held by the company in New York and Toronto, yesterday and the day before yesterday, in which it emerged that the management has ruled out the need for a capital increase I. Meanwhile, Cheuvreux confirmed his negative judgment on the Italian insurance sector. A report underlines that, while the opinion remains positive on the Non-Life sector, new business in the Life sector will remain "very weak in the coming quarters". As a result, insurance companies could increase the returns paid to policyholders so as not to reduce the appeal of their products. and therefore there could be a compression of the spreads.
ASTALDI, NICE, PIAGGIO, INDUSTRY RAISES ITS HEAD
The industrial strength of India and South Korea has now surpassed Italy, which has slipped from fifth to seventh place in the world rankings. But the made in Italy continues to reap some successes, above all on the front of the BRICS of today and the future ones. Yesterday Nice acquired control of the Peccinin family group in Brazil, "the starting point for building a solid production base for South America". Astaldi has won a 700 million euro contract for the construction of the new terminal at St. Petersburg airport. Finally, Piaggio. Roberto Colaninno announced in Jakarta his entry into the Indonesian market, the third largest in the world in terms of sales volumes. The operation will follow the same strategy that proved to be successful in Vietnam: first the establishment of the commercial network, then a factory.
AND TAMBURI INVESTS IN ITSELF
Meanwhile, some titles that are part of Tip's portfolio shine: Prysmian, at the top of the performance rankings, Interpump, De Longhi and Amplifon, among others. Perhaps to celebrate the occasion, Gianni Tamburi chose yesterday's date to break the piggy bank and convert his warrants into Tip shares, investing just under 700 euros in all. A good deal: the conversion, in twelve months' time, will cost 10 percent more, without taking into account the dividend, equal to another 2,5 percent.
