Sergio Marchionne, for the first time in ten years, deserts the Frankfurt show. The Fiat CEO has canceled both tomorrow's press meeting and the meeting of Acea, the association of car manufacturers which he also chairs. Explanation? "Unforeseen work commitments" is the laconic (non) explanation of the Lingotto spokesman. And to increase the feeling of yellow comes the confirmation that not even the president John Philipp Elkann will be in Frankfurt.
The market reacted to the double defection with a robust rise which allowed the Fiat share to breach the 6 euro level on the upside. No one believes that Marchionne will leave Frankfurt for the Fiat Industrial road show which is starting these days. It didn't take much imagination to connect the couple's unforeseen commitments at the head of Fiat with a possible evolution of the tug-of-war over Chrysler which pits Fiat against the Veba fund of the American trade union Uaw. Just last week the Uaw (which is signing a pilot agreement with Volkswagen for the Chattanooga plant) fired a missile in Delaware asking the judge to set the next hearing to define the price of Chrysler shares today in the hands of the presidential fund of blue-collar workers in January 2015. This is the motivation for the request, "to allow the parties to reach an out-of-court settlement".
Behind the apparent irritation of the parties, in short, there could be the final rush in view of an agreement on the price: Fiat, apparently, is firm on a valuation of 41,5% of Chrysler at 1,8 billion dollars. The Uaw, which within the year will have to supplement the social security and health funds for pensioners and employees (a burden that will fall on Fiat when the threshold of 80% of the capital is exceeded) replies with a valuation of 4,2 billion. In theory, both parties can agree to a lengthy litigation. In reality, above all iat, he has an interest in closing the dispute as soon as possible: only when Marchionne has control of at least 75% of the capital will he be able to unify the Detroit cash register with that of Turin and start the necessary investment plan to get closer to the goal of 6 million pieces by 2016. For this, however, the purchase of the share (16,1%) which Veba has undertaken to sell to Lingotto by contract and on the price of which the cause lies in Delaware.
So far the US match, a possible and logical but unconfirmed explanation for the absence of Marchionne and Elkann from Frankfurt. After all, there are no compelling reasons for Marchionne to parade on the catwalk of the motor show that celebrates the triumphs of the German car. The Fiat group presents only restyling and new versions of existing models at the show. And the inquiries of the analysts in Marchionne did not promise to hold. "We know - comments Eric Hauser of the British Isi Group" that Fiat will have to lower its trading profit due to a worsening performance both in Brazil and in Chrysler itself". The new trading profit should settle at 3,88 billion euros, about 120 million below the previously announced target.
