Donald Trump has now adopted the Penelope strategy. No time to allow Wall Street to celebrate the good news that the president's staff announced Tuesday on tax reform and budget agreement, that the president has pledged to undo the canvas with a ferocity worthy of suitors rather than of the Queen. From Arizona, the White House tenant threatened to bring down the US government (shutdown) if the project for the construction of the wall on the Mexican border is not completed and has returned to airing the nation's exit from the agreement of free with Mexico and Canada, the NAFTA. As if that weren't enough, the New York Times writes that Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, does not believe Trump can save his administration from chaos, which would further complicate the implementation of a pro-growth agenda that remains a mirage. All of this can only complicate the role of central bankers, on the eve of tomorrow's speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi in Jackson Hole, surrounded by journalists who, once a year, disturb the peace of the Wyoming bears.
In Italy, but not only, a show more modest in numbers, but no less exciting, is taking center stage. There isn't a day without Fiat Chrysler offering emotions. And a constant variation of roles: the Italian-American group, from being a possible prey to Chinese shopping, is becoming the protagonist of a possible, pyrotechnic break-up of a billionaire. The Stock Exchange applauds.
ASIA WEAK, BRAZIL AT HIGHEST SINCE 2011
While awaiting speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi in Jackson Hole, the markets' attention focused on Trump's threats to the government. Meanwhile, a new bombshell arrives on Russiagate: Cnn reveals the existence of an e-mail in which a close collaborator of Trump talks about organizing a secret meeting with Vladimir Putin.
The Asian price lists are weak. Shanghai slows down -0,3%, Tokyo slightly down -0,1%. The agreement with Toyota for a drop in the price of steel weighs on steel stocks. In contrast, Hong Kong +0,45% on reopening after the typhoon. Sidney is up +.025%, Seoul is down -0,4%. The Brazilian Stock Exchange was once again in the spotlight with a gain of 0,7% which pushed the Bovespa index to its highest level since January 2011. Confidence in the privatization plan. The Wall Street indices are down: Dow Jones -0,4%, S&P and Nasdaq -0,3%.
GOOGLE-WAL MART ALLIANCE VERSUS AMAZON
The holy anti-Amazon alliance is born -0,92% Wal-Mart -0,07% teams up with Google +0,23% to contend with Jeff Bezos for the scepter of online shopping. The US commerce giant has announced that by the end of September its customers will be able to place orders simply by voice, through the search engine platform.
THE DIGITAL CYCLONE HAPPENS ON ADVERTISING: WPP -12%
The British advertising giant WPP leaves 11,49% on the ground on Wall Street after reducing its estimates on spending by large clients. The advance of digital technology, admitted CEO Martin Sorrell, has hit the sector hard. Omnicom -6,94% and Interpublic Group -6,32% also suffer. The euro traded this morning at 1,18005 against the dollar.
Oil was weak, put under pressure by the increase in shale oil production: Wti at 48,36 dollars (-0,1%), Brent at 52,54 dollars. Little move Eni, Saipem -1,01%.
EUROPE, THE INDUSTRY IS BOOMING. THE pound pound weighs heavily on yoox
The manufacturing industry in the euro zone recorded its best growth in six and a half years in August. The August flash estimate of the eurozone composite PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, came in at 55,8 points from 55,7. Final GDP figures for Spain, the UK and Norway will be announced today.
Piazza Affari, despite the FCA effect, closed down by 0,5%, 21.620 points, weighed down by the banks, which were in turn penalized by the recovery in the spread. The other European lists are also in red: the worst place is Madrid -0,73%, followed by Frankfurt -0,45%, Paris -0,32%. Flat London +0,01%.
The decline of the pound continues against the euro, which has risen to an eight-year high of 0,92042 (+0,36%): parity is not far off. The drop in the British currency weighs on Yoox -2% The group that sells fashion clothing online, records around 13% of its turnover in the UK and the pound represents, after the euro, the first foreign currency in terms of consolidated revenues.
DRAGHI DEFENDS QE. WEIDMANN: NOW IT SHOULD BE CLOSED
"Extensive empirical research has confirmed the success of these policies in supporting the economy and inflation, both in the Eurozone and in the US". So Mario Draghi speaking in Lindau, Germany. “The policy actions taken in the past decade in monetary policy and regulation and supervision have made the world more resilient. But we should continue to prepare for new challenges”. Dragons continue. “When the world changes as it did ten years ago policies, especially monetary policy, these – continued Draghi – must be adjusted. This adjustment, never easy, requires an unbiased and honest assessment of new realities with open eyes, unencumbered by the defense of previously held paradigms that have lost all explanatory power.
In the same hours the president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann said that there is no need to extend the quantitative easing beyond December 2017. "According to our June forecasts, there is no real need to extend the program for next year purchase,” he told Boersen-Zeitung magazine. “An orderly exit is needed rather,” he added.
THE SPREAD RISES TO 175 POINTS. 2 BILLION CTZ OFFERED ON MONDAY
Uncertain session for the BTPs, which reduce losses but remain negative protagonists among the bonds of the euro area. Italian stocks are penalized by the political risk linked to the elections next spring, which was somewhat rekindled by Silvio Berlusconi's utterances over the weekend in favor of the idea of a dual currency.
The Italian ten-year rate stands at 2,120% from 2,101% after a flare-up to 2,169%, a peak for one month. The spread with the similar maturity of the Bund closed at 175 basis points from 171 at the end of yesterday's session, after a bet at 176 basis points, the highest since July 14th. The 68-year spread on Spain, considered a barometer of Italian political risk, rose to 66 points from 10. Treasury auctions resume. Monday 28 The Ministry of Economy will make 1,5-2 billion euros of the Ctz 30 May 2019 available to investors.
FIAT CHRYSLER FLY. LIKE THE IDEA OF THE BREAK-UP
The limelight of Piazza Affari continues to be occupied by Fiat Chrysler +5,75% at the end of a session of intense trading and equal to 2,38% of the share capital. The tension on the stock was kept high by an article by Bloomberg according to which the group is evaluating various options, including a project that involves the separation of the Maserati and Alfa Romeo brands and its components activities. Meanwhile, analysts meanwhile are calculating how much the sum of the parts of the group could be worth and we arrive at estimates of up to 50 billion euros. Today it has a capital of just under 18 billion. Morgan Stanley and Jefferies have brought the target to 16 and 15 euros respectively.
From China, Great Wall Motor said it had not yet approached the board of Fiat Chrysler in view of a possible offer on Jeep. Today Sergio Marchionne is expected to attend an event at the Jeep plant in Belvidere, Illinois. Following FCA, Exor rose +1,43%. Ferrari slightly down -0,15%.
WEAK BANKS. BUT GOLDMAN AWARDS UNICREDIT AND BANCO BPM
The pressure on fixed income is still affecting Italian bankers. The sector index fell by 1,76%, one point more than the European Stoxx -0,7%. The tensions neutralized the effect of a Goldman Sachs report on the sector's recovery. According to the analysis, 2017 was a turning point for the recovery of Italian banks with a Rote (return on total assets) of 10%, resulting from the gains made by the major institutions with the acquisitions of banks in crisis. This year, the core revenues of Italian institutions grew by an average of 1% year-on-year thanks to the increase in the commission margin (+5%) which more than offset the decline in the interest margin. Costs remained stable. Goldman analysts are keeping their 2018-2021 EPS forecasts broadly unchanged following Q1 results (-XNUMX% excluding MPS).
Goldman promotes with a Buy Unicredit (target price raised to 22,50 euros from 21,70, potential upside around 27%) yesterday down 1,8% at the close, and Banco Bpm -2,5%. Target prices increase by an average of 4% thanks to a drop in the cost of equity for smaller banks. Only for Bper -1,26% does the 12-month target go from 4,80 to 5,20 euros. Neutral rating for Intesa -1,46%. Yesterday the institute announced the purchase of the Morval Vonwiller group, including Banque Morval, a Swiss private bank active in asset management. The Zanon di Valgiurata family, founders of Morval Vonwiller Holding, will remain minority shareholders.
MEDIASET TOWARDS THE EXIT FROM THE STOXX 600. UP THE SALINI
In the rest of the list:
– Mediaset falls by 1,7%. The stock of the Cologno Monzese group will leave the Stoxx 600 index starting from 18 September.
– Among the utilities, Enel falls -1,3%: HSBC has brought the target down to 5,40 euros from 5 euros. Judgment Buy confirmed. Iren also down -1,2% despite growing revenues and margins, also thanks to the consolidation of the latest acquisitions.
– Weak Atlantia -0,3% while the tug of war with Acs on Abertis continues. According to El Confidential, the company led by Real Madrid president Florentino Perez is working to finalize a 17 euro/share offer to take over Abertis, a proposal that would be 50 cents higher than the 16,5 euro Italian offer.
– Salt +2,5%. The group has raised expectations on the US market, with the aim of generating 2,2 billion in turnover in 2017 and 3 billion in 2019,
– Safilo -2%, marks new five-year lows.
