La Federal Reserve will raise rates of interest”relatively soon, if macroeconomic data continue to show progress”. He reiterated it today Janet Yellen, number one of the American Central Bank, in a written preview released before the hearing before a Congressional Commission, scheduled for 16 pm Italian time. According to many commentators, monetary tightening could come as early as the next Fed meeting, to be held the 13 and the 14 December.
“If the FOMC (the Committee that decides on monetary policy, ed.) were to postponing a rate hike for too long – added Yellen – could find himself a having to launch a squeeze relatively abruptly to prevent the economy from overheating compared to the central bank's long-term objectives”, namely those on employment and inflation. “Moreover, holding rates at current levels for too long could also be encouraging excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability.”
Moreover, the prospect of a rate hike is also strengthened by the positive macroeconomic data that arrived today from the United States. In the week ending November 12, initial claims for unemployment benefits they decreased by 19 to 235, while analysts had forecast an increase to 255.
As for the consumer prices, increased for the third consecutive month in October, recording the best trend in the last two years. The data, communicated by the Labor Department, increased by 0,4% compared to the previous month, in line with analysts' expectations.
Finally, on the side ofconstruction activity, in October the index that measures the start of new construction sites rose on an annual basis by 25,5%, to 1,323 million, while analysts had expected a more contained rise, to 1,15 million. The August figure was revised down to 1,054 million (from 1,047 million in the first estimate). Single-family housing starts, which exclude apartments and account for nearly two-thirds of the US market, surged to 869.000. Building permits, which anticipate future activity in the building sector, also increased by 0,3% to 1,229 million.
Despite everything, Yellen underlined - with extreme caution - that the labor market and the American economy still have "room for improvement", even if the decision to leave interest rates unchanged during the November FOMC meeting "does not reflect a lack of confidence” in US growth prospects.
