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Fed to hike rates in 2023, Robinhood boom: +82%

Signals are coming from the Fed on the change in monetary policy, but only in 2023 – Wall Street restless – Three records instead for the Eurostoxx – Commerzbank loses momentum

Fed to hike rates in 2023, Robinhood boom: +82%

Robinhood does not disappoint. After last week's terrible debut on Wall Street (-8,4% on the price of the IPO), the comeback came yesterday: +82% on the wave of a shower of purchases that made the quotation jump above stocks such as Ford or Kraft. A leap propitiated by the fact that since yesterday it is possible to buy derivative contracts on the platform's title, which traders, regardless of the risk, have done with both hands. The news confirms that, regardless of worries about the pandemic, inflation or the slowdown in the recovery, the markets can contract on an army of enthusiasts galvanized by the accumulated gains.

CLARIDA (FED): THE TIME FOR THE INCREASES IS APPROACHING

People who are not even frightened by the severe tone taken yesterday by Richard Clarida, the real architect of the Fed's policy, who yesterday set the date for the rate hike for the first time: "I think the conditions for changing policy will at the end of 2022,” he said. In short, from 2023, we will change. And the announcement was enough to boost the dollar and T bond yields as well as curb Wall Street.

ASIAN EXCHANGES ON THE RISE. HONG KONG +0,45%

Clarida's hawkish tone hasn't held back Asian stock markets. The Asia Pacific index recorded a modest rise (+0,22%). Japan is doing better (+0,32%), Sydney is also on positive ground.

Hong Kong recovers half a point after a difficult week due to pressure from the authorities on school and gaming titles.

Wall Street stocks fell yesterday: Dow Jones -0,92%, S&P 500 -0,46%. Only the Nasdaq rose (+0,13%).

Among the most targeted stocks GM (-8,9%) and Ford (down by 7%). Analysts are calling for more speed in the transition to electric.

Weak data on the US labor market added to worries about the new wave of Covid. The change in employment in the non-agricultural sector (ADP) in the month of July was positive for 330 thousand units, but the consensus expected much more: 690 thousand; the previous figure was 680 thousand.

Treasury yields resumed this morning: the 1,1999-year yield rose to 1,12% from XNUMX, the lowest since February, reached before Clarida's intervention.

Oil rose above 70 dollars this morning after three days of decline linked to the sharp increase in US inventories. Gold was stable (-0,1%).

EUROSTOXX, THREE RECORDS AT ONCE

The sword of Damocles of Covid still hangs over the European price lists. But, thanks to the boost of results and comforting economic data, the script does not change: the stock markets of the Old Continent are advancing, on the contrary, the appeal of declining bond yields continues to decline.

The Eurostoxx 465 index reaches an all-time high of 17,0 points (+2021% since the beginning of 600), which replicates the performance of large/medium-sized companies belonging to 11 eurozone countries, which cover around 90% of the capitalization of the related stock market.

The Stoxx 438 also rose to a maximum of 17,40 (+600%) which is made up of the shares of medium/large companies in the Eurozone as well as the shares of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland.

The Eurostoxx 50 index, which includes the top 50 blue chips in the eurozone, rose to 4.145 points, close to the historic record set last June.

MILAN +0,5%, PMI INDEX UP SIXTH IN A ROW

Half a point increase for Piazza Affari, which closed at 25.483.

The Italian services sector in July recorded the strongest growth in the last 14 years. The PMI IHS Markit services index stood at 58,0 points in July from 56,7 the previous month.

The composite index, which sums up services and manufacturing, rose to 58,6 points from 58,3 in June. This is the sixth consecutive month of growth and the highest figure since January 2018, albeit slightly lower than analysts' expectations.

In June 2021, retail sales grew by 0,7% in value and 0,6% in volume. On a trend basis, as of June 2021, retail sales are up 7,7% in value and 8,1% in volume. Also in this case the positive trend is sustained for non-food goods (+11,9%), more moderate for food (+2,5% in value).

RENAULT SHINES IN PARIS

The race is held back by Paris (+0,33%), however at its highest since 2000. The best stock is Renault (+3,2%) supported by the improvement in Nissan's accounts.

Thales advances after Hitachi's offer for the sale of the railway signaling sector (the Japanese have already bought Ansaldo Sts).

THUD OF COMMERZBANK (-5,73%)

Step forward for Frankfurt (+0,88%). Commerzbank loses ground (-5,73%) after accounts in deep red. The provisions of 511 million to cover the costs of the redundancies envisaged by the reorganization and the write-downs of 200 million decided after the abandonment of the outsourcing project to HSBC of the securities settlement activities announced in June, scuttled the second German bank.

SOFTBANK BUYS ROCHE SHARES FOR $5 BILLION

Positive London (+0,2%), Madrid (+0,24%) and Amsterdam (+0,88%). Zurich +0,23%.

Bloomberg reports that Japan's Softbank has raised a $5 billion package in Swiss biotech firm Roche.

BTP, PRICES RECOVERING AFTER CLARIDA

In the afternoon, the data on the US services index and the statements of the Fed's deputy, Richard Clarida, corrected the course of the bond markets, which until then had been characterized by a new sharp drop in yields.

The 1,20-year T bond rose to 1,12% from 0,54%, its lowest since February. The yield on ten-year BTPs, which slipped to 0,57%, recovered to 0,49%. The German bund closed down -0,51% from -105%. The spread is placed in the final at XNUMX points.  

FINECO AT THE TOP, ANALYSTS RAISE THE TARGETS

Illuminating Piazza Affari and in particular the financial sector is the flight of Fineco (+3,28%) to a new all-time high on the wave of the increase in targets by analysts. Equita sim confirmed the buy recommendation with a target price increased by 5% to 16,6 euros. Barclays has instead raised the target price from 15,3 to 16 euros, confirming the equalweight rating. Second quarter results were “solid and consistent with expectations”.

INTESA, AN ADVANCE OF THE 2021 DIVIDEND IN NOVEMBER

“We are an unstoppable profit machine – Carlo Messina told analysts – this is the best second quarter in our history, thanks to higher commissions, wealth management and lower credit and NPL risk”. And so Intesa San Paolo, after the best semester since 2008, can kick off a rain of dividends: after having already detached 694 million coupons for 2020 in May, it will pay a balance of 1,93 billion in October (9,96. 1,4 cents per share) and in November another 7,21 billion (2021 cents per share) as an advance on the 1,7 dividend. The share, which jumped up to +0,24% after the announcement of the results, then suffered the “sell on news” closing at -XNUMX%.

FRANCO DEFENDS UNICREDIT/MPS: “THE BEST SOLUTION”

Weak Unicredit (-0,4%) awaiting the hearing of the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco on the Monte Paschi operation (+1%). Before the Finance Commission of the Chamber, the minister argued that the merger represents "the strategically superior solution from the point of view of the general interest of the country" and is "motivated from an industrial point of view". At the end of the merger, added Franco, the Mef could find itself a shareholder of Unicredit, “but this eventual participation should not alter the balance of governance. I would like to reassure – concluded the head of the Mef – that it will not be a sale of state property”, even if impaired loans and legal disputes will remain outside the perimeter.

Bper unchanged in view of the accounts. Bpm bounce (+1%). Still sales at Carige (-6,75%).

JP MORGAN CHARGES STELLANTIS

In great evidence Stellantis (+2,3%), awarded after the quarterly. Several brokers revised the target price of the stock upwards: JP Morgan brought the target up to 27 euros from 20 euros. For Equita the recommendation is "Buy" with a target of 23 euros.

After two negative sessions, Ferrari recovered, up 2%.

On the other hand, Buzzi still sells (-2%), despite the better-than-expected quarterly results.

ENEL EXITS OPEN FIBER FOR 2,65 BILLION

To follow this morning Enel after the conclusion of the deal on Open Fiber, sold yesterday for 2,65 billion euros. The transaction provides for the Australian fund Macquarie Asset Management to purchase 40% of Open Fiber's capital for 2,12 billion, while Cdp, which already holds 50%, will rise to 60% by purchasing 10% for 530 million.

MARR DOUBLE-DIGIT ADVANCE, SAFILO STOP ON THE UPWARD

Strappa Marr (+10,9%) after a better-than-expected quarter on the Ebitda and net debt front. Kepler Cheuvreux raised the recommendation on the stock to "Buy" from "Hold", with a target price of 22,5 euros from the previous 20,5 euros.

Comments on Banca Intermobiliare (+8,8%) and Cairo Communication (+8,5%). On the downside, volatile Safilo, down 7% after recent hikes.    

AIM, NUSCO AND OMER MAKE THEIR DEBUT. 21 IPOS OF THE YEAR AT LEVEL

Two debuts on the Aim: Nusco, active in the production and marketing of interior doors and wooden window frames, closed up 8%.

Omer, a company that operates internationally in the sector of design and production of railway components with a high engineering content, rose by 1,5%.

With these two debuts, the number of admissions to the Aim managed by Borsa Italiana rises to 21 in 2021, for a total of 152 listed companies.

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