Confusion reigns under the sky of the Fed, more divided than ever on the rate hike. But the air of conflict that emerges from the minutes of the last central bank meeting does not displease the markets: the doves opposed to an increase appear strong and determined not to give in to the request for a tightening, albeit modest. In the end, in order to avoid the breakup, it was decided to "collect more data" before a move. And so, after the release of the minutes, the markets reversed course: up Wall Street, until then in negative territory, down the dollar and government bonds.
But the tug of war has just begun: the president of the New York Fed, William Dudley, and the number one of the Atlanta Fed, Dennis Lockhart, lined up for the rise against James Bullard of the Saint Louis Fed. A busy week ahead of Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole surgery on Friday the 26th.
Furthermore, the Fed has raised the alarm on the weakness of European banks, and in particular of the Italian ones, whose difficulties continue to persist.
CISCO CUTS 5.500 SEATS. OIL RISING
Meteo Borsa thus signals a rapidly evolving situation:
– US stocks rise again: Dow Jones +0,12%. S&P 500 +0,10% - Nasdaq +0.03%.
– Worth noting is Cisco's -1,3% decision to cut 5.500 jobs, 7% of its workforce.
– Yields on US government bonds fell coinciding with the decline in the dollar, which slipped to 1,1391 (.0,2%) against the euro. In one week the single currency gained 1%.
– Oil recovered after the unexpected drop in crude inventories in the United States, Brent (+1,3% to 49,9 dollars), recorded the fifth consecutive session of gains. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell 2,5 million barrels last week to 521 million barrels, versus the consensus expectation for a 0,5 million barrel increase. The decline in the level of inventories comes after three consecutive weeks of increases. Crude oil is close to a six-week high, after four consecutive days of gains in which it gained 11,7% overall.
– The energy sector is weak. In Piazza Affari Eni falls by 1,25%. Saipem -0,54%, Tenaris -0,55%.
WEAK DOLLAR KILLS TOKYO
– The drop in the dollar was especially felt in Tokyo: this morning 100,5 yen is enough to buy a dollar, a figure that is very unwelcome to the Japanese authorities grappling with the drop in exports (-14% in the last 12 months) and in the imports (-24,7%). The Nikkei index fell by 0,9%.
– The weak dollar, on the other hand, pushes Hong Kong up +1,6%, to new highs for the year under the impetus of the excellent profits of the tech giant Tencent, and Chinese stock markets. Shanghai rises by 0,4%.
SEAT BLACK FOR EUROPE. PORTUGAL BOTS SHAKE
A brilliant opening is expected for the European stock exchanges, held back yesterday by the expectation of the publication of the Fed minutes. On the macro front, today's most important data concerns French unemployment (unchanged, according to forecasts, at 9,9%) . Outgoing data for the first half of Nestlè.
– In Piazza Affari, the FtseMib index fell by 1,58% to 16.528 points, on the day's lows.
– The losses in Frankfurt were also heavy -1,26%. Weak Paris -0,96% and London -0,46%.
– The 1,11-year BTP closed a mixed session at 2,97%, unchanged. Portugal is in the spotlight: the 21-year bond reached XNUMX%, the highest in about two weeks. In an interview with Reuters, the head of sovereign ratings of DBRS Fergus McCormick, in view of the next judgment on Lisbon which will arrive on October XNUMX, said that the credit profile of the Portuguese sovereign issuer is increasingly at risk, with pressure downwards for all "peripheral" countries.
GENERALI RISKS EXIT FROM THE STOXX 50. NEW MINIMUM FOR MPS
It was above all the financials that pushed Piazza Affari downwards. In particular, throughout the session there were insistent sales on Generali -2,7% . The achievements of the last few sessions were accentuated by rumors according to which the insurance group's stock could be excluded from the Stoxx50 index during the August 23 revision, to make way for the Irish construction company Crh.
Unipol lost 2,7%, UnipolSai -2,2%.
Asset management is also bad: Azimut -2,9%, FinecoBank -2,8%, Banca Mediolanum -1,6%.
The banks retreat: Monte Paschi -3,5% marks a new historic low at 0,2398 euro. Banca Imi confirmed the hold recommendation on the stock (target price under review), underlining how the timing of the presentation of the new industrial plan indicated by the press in mid-September is "a little shorter than expected, while the contents appear in line with our expectations. But, the note adds, “we continue to see a significant execution risk in the 5 billion euro capital increase, crucial for the realization of the entire industrial plan, under current market conditions”.
Bper is also down -3,72% which could be interested in buying the good banks of Banca delle Marche and Banca Etruria- The Bigs are also down: Intesa -2,6%, Unicredit -2,4%.
Ubi loses 4%. The bank has received three summons from shareholders with requests for compensation related to the amount of the redemptions of the shares subject to withdrawal following the transformation into a joint-stock company, according to what emerges from the bank's half-yearly report.
MORGAN STANLEY: FERRARI MAY RISE TO 70 DOLLARS
However, there were positive notes.
– Against the trend, Telecom Italia, the best stock on the Ftse Mib with a rise of 1,9% with good volumes. The recovery of interest in the company on the part of investors continues, favored by the indications arriving from Brussels: the EU will regulate the telecommunications services offered by online operators in a more stringent way. Finally, the agreement between the company and Sky on the revision of the contract that regulates the offer of pay TV content for TI's broadband customers seems imminent.
– Ferrari was one of the best blue chips, the stock finished up about one point at 42,70 euros. Morgan Stanley analysts raised the target price on the stock to 56 dollars (49,7 euros) from the previous 54 euros and confirmed the Overweigh opinion: Morgan Stanley's new target price promises a 15% gain on paper. In the best-case scenario, the investment bank sees the stock at $70, more than $20 above the current Wall Street price.
– Leap forward also for Rcs Mediagroup +4,6%: the market is betting on the plan of the new controlling shareholder, Urbano Cairo who, with the purchases between 8 and 11 August, rose to 59,831% (from the previous 59,68%) of the publishing house.
