The news from the Ukrainian front is, if possible, even more dramatic. But the world of markets is fighting a parallel war in a situation which, between soaring energy prices and the consequences of sanctions, is heading towards stagnation. In this context, Jerome Powell's message arrived yesterday evening: the Federal Reserve, despite the war, will continue with plans to increase interest rates this month to try to tame high inflation, but the increase will only be by a quarter point. Basically an optimistic tone regarding the fallout of the war in Ukraine on the economy. The situation is not alarming and there is no need to start monetary tightening with a heavy fifty basis point hike. Powell's testimony pushed up Wall Street, hitherto uncertain, and continued this morning in Asia. Slightly positive futures also in Europe as we await an improbable clearing up in the East thanks to the negotiations which resume this morning.
Asia, the tech goes up. Commodities push Sydney
Plus sign for Asian price lists. Tokyo's Nikkei gains 0,8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0,5%. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists falls by 0,6%. Kospi of Seoul +1,5%.
Above all, banks and finance companies are on the rise, while techs are weak. Hang Seng Tech is down for the second consecutive day, this morning -1,3% and yesterday -2,7%.
The rise of the Sydney index continues (+0,5%), supported by mining stocks.
Apple announces a launch for March 8
Wall Street futures are flat. The S&P closed up 1,9% yesterday. Six of its eleven sector sectors recorded gains of more than +2%. The Nasdaq gained 1,6%, the Russell 2000, the stock of mid and small caps 2,5%.
Apple runs (+2,1%) which has announced the launch of a new product for March 8th.
The 1,86-year Treasury Note is very volatile, the yield of which climbed back to 1,74%, from XNUMX% yesterday morning.
Oil at 117 dollars, more complicated supplies
The war is being fought, increasingly bitter, on the front of energy and agricultural raw materials. Oil is at 9-year highs at $117, wheat exceeds $11 a bushel for the first time since 2008. European gas prices climb 40% to €173 a megawatt hour.
The sanctions of the European Union tend, from a financial point of view, to save the energy market, but in reality the commercial channels are blowing up. Banks are reluctant to grant letters of credit and to broker payments, and it has become very difficult as well as very expensive to transport them. As a result, about 70% of trading in Russian crude is frozen today, Energy Aspects estimates.
Gold moved little, at 1.925 dollars an ounce, down by 0,1%. The descent of the euro is slowing down, down 0,1% this morning to 1,11 against the dollar.
EU inflation rises to 5,8%. De Guindos: "a negative surprise"
In the US, the tightening of interest rates slows down but does not stop. In the Old Continent, at the forefront of the Ukrainian crisis, the outlook is much more uncertain even if, under the pressure of energy, the race in prices continues, leaping to a new record in February.
The surge in prices is obviously reflected in the ongoing debate at the ECB in view of the directorate. The February data reserved “a negative surprise, also on core inflation”, said Vice President Luis de Guindos, a few hours before the start of the period of silence in view of the meeting of the European Central Bank on 10 March. Before war broke out in Ukraine, inflation was "the more sensitive issue" under discussion in Frankfurt, he said, "but the economy seemed to be regaining momentum." Now instead, "the evolution of inflation represents an enormous concern because a possible additional inflationary effect can derive from war and sanctions".
Lane (ECB): "It takes patience, it's an offer shock"
"The experts of the Bundesbank - wrote the president of the German central bank Joachim Nagel - believe that the rate of inflation can reach an average of 5%: the Governing Council of the ECB will have to adjust the course of monetary policy". Opposite the opinion of the chief economist of the ECB Philip Lane: "The ECB must be patient while inflation rises due to the supply shock".
The spread goes back to 152, Piazza Affari +0,7%
Tensions are felt in the Italian secondary, which closes in the red. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration rises to 152 basis points and the rate of the Italian bond is +1,53 against +0,01% of the analogous German bond.
Piazza Affari, after various ups and downs, closed with a gain of 0,7% and remains well below 25 points (24.534).
In the rest of Europe: Paris +1,59%; Madrid +1,63%; Amsterdam +1,06%; Frankfurt, +0,73%; London +1,37%.
Moscow remained closed for the third day in a row and fears are beginning for the country's default following the heavy sanctions decided by the West.
Western VIPs who sat on the boards of Moscow's economic giants are resigning one after the other, with the visible exception of former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, whose aides are quitting in protest over his more than ambiguous position.
Abramovich "gives away" Chelsea to avoid penalties
The retreat of Roman Abramovich, the most famous oligarch who has announced that it has given control of Chelsea to a foundation giving up his credits towards the club (almost two billion euros). Once the European champion club has been sold, the foundation will use the funds "to compensate the victims of the war in Ukraine". A repentance? Easier than a move, probably useless, to escape sanctions.
Also noteworthy is the new landslide by Ericsson (-12%): the group announced that it had been informed that the revelations made to the US Justice Department on an internal investigation into the conduct in Iraq were deemed insufficient. The accusation is that he financed ISIS in order to be able to work.
1,2 billion deal: Prysmian queen in Milan
At Piazza Affari the positive surprise is Prysmian: +4,24% after a 1,2 billion euro order awarded by NeuConnect Britain and NeuConnect Deutschland for the design, production, installation, testing and inspection of a submarine interconnection of 725 km which for the first time will directly connect the German and English electricity grids.
Stm closed at -0,2%,
Eni runs, which will come out of blue stream
Commodity stocks are strong. Eni (+2%) has communicated its intention to sell its stake in the Blue Stream gas pipeline which connects Russia to Turkey. According to the broker Equita, "Eni's exposure to Russian investments is marginal both in absolute and relative terms compared to other oil companies". Also recovering is Maire Tecnimont (+5%), which has been very sold since the beginning of the war in Ukraine due to its exposure to the area.
The automotive sector also raises its head, led by Cnh (+2,7%). In luxury Moncler scores a good recovery (+2,88%).
Profit-taking weighs on Diasorin (-2,64%), Leonardo (-1,5%) and utilities, which are also looking at rate hikes with concern. The worst are Terna (-2,38%), A2a (-2,11%) and Hera (-1,5%).
Unicredit and Intesa rebound
Session in the wake of volatility for banks. Intesa Sanpaolo recovers the initial losses and closes at +1,39%.
To the rescue Unicredit (+2,11%), the stock most targeted since the beginning of the crisis.
Tim: yes to the spin-off, losses of 8,7 billion
Flat Tim, at 0,3437 euros, on the day of a battle board of directors on accounts after -9% on the eve. The top management unanimously approved a maxi-budget cleanup that leads Tim to a loss of 8,7 billion in 2021. It also mandated the CEO to negotiate the sale of the Inwit towers and unanimously approved the objectives of the business plan 2022-2024, including the process of separation of Telecom Italia between the service company ServiceCo, from that of the network, called Netco, which should then merge with the rival Open Fiber.
Mfe (formerly Mediaset) towards the dividend, runs Ariston
The better than expected 2021 preliminary results reward MediaforEurope, ex Mediaset (+4%). Intesa Sanpaolo analysts write in the daily that “although the BoD has not yet expressed its opinion on the dividend policy, we do not exclude the possibility that it may propose the coupon on the occasion of the definitive ok to the results on 27 April. Assuming it will distribute the dividends received from Ei Towers following the sale of Towertel, this would imply a dividend of €0,06 per share, with a yield of 5,6% for B shares and 7,3% for A shares ”. Out of the main basket, Ariston Holding was also awarded, which on the day of the 2021 results marks an increase of over 4%.
