The latest alarm for the automotive world sounded as early as the morning, when Hakan Samuelsson, CEO of Volvo, he threw the earnings alarm for the drop in profits on cars destined for the US market. An expected signal, in line with the decision of the Chinese parent company, Geely, to suspend the listing, as well as with the results, disappointing, announced yesterday by Daimler, Gm e Toyota. She had no better a Land Rover which blamed £3,1 billion in losses. In short, at every latitude, the car is braking under the pressure of growing investment costs, weak demand and the expectation of the next, feared US squeeze.
In this high-risk setting, the sharp decline in Fiat Chrysler shares in the morning (-4%) even before the conclusion of the council, it indicated the risk that the group was the earthenware vase in the midst of rusty iron vases.
Punctual, sales were unleashed after the publication of the accounts, which also, to tell the truth, they do not paint a dramatic picture. Indeed, the results are in line with expectations (or even better). But the forecast for 2019 is bleak, indeed dramatic, partly reflecting the distrust of what remains of the Italian component of the group.
The share, traded at 14,83 euros at 12,45 when the results were released, fell to a minimum of 13,52 euros with a drop of 11,5%.
THE FOURTH QUARTER 2018
In summary, the quarter closed with a Adjusted EBIT to 2,023 billion, Net revenues to 30,619 billion e industrial net liquidity to 1,872 billion, all in all in line with the analysts' estimates and with the forecasts indicated by the group at the end of the third quarter.
Last year Fiat Chrysler made an adjusted net profit of 5 billion euros, an increase of 38% compared to 2017 and beyond the consensus estimates (4,594 billion). Better than expected, thanks to the Nafta area, too adjusted ebitequal to 7,3 billion.
THE 2019 TARGETS
The sore points concern i target 2019. THE'Adjusted EBIT slows down to over 6,7 billion euros (against 9,2-10,4 billion, net of Magneti Marelli, of the industrial plan presented in June), or 10% below consensus estimates.
Il free cash flow net industrial will be 1,5 billion against 4,4 billion (again excluding Magneti Marelli) in 2018 due to "increased investments and disbursements for penalties and other costs in relation to the settlement of the outstanding diesel emissions issues in the USA" .
THEnet earnings per share is seen by the company above 2,70 euros, down from 3,0 euros in 2018, due to higher taxes to be paid in the United States.
