The storm of sales on Banco Popolare rings in confirmation, not necessary in truth, of the profound malaise of the Italian banking system. The slowdown in car sales in the USA, down for the first time since 2009, casts a shadow on the American recovery. China is also losing ground, with negative effects on raw materials. This is the setting, not too cheerful, that precedes today's appointments: the directorate of the ECB, an opportunity to take stock of the monetary expansion policy of the Eurozone and the OPEC summit, the first after the departure of Al Naimi, for twenty years the director of Saudi energy policy.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange fell sharply this morning (-2,4%), despite the decision to postpone the increase in the consumption tax. The Stock Exchanges of China and India moved little: even in Asia, data on employment are expected to arrive between today and tomorrow, especially tomorrow's data is very relevant.
THE BEIGE BOOK REVIVE WALL STREET, US CAR BRAKING
The American Stock Exchange canceled the losses at the start of the session, practically closing on parity, the Dow Jones managed to mark a decline of more than 100 points, it ended trading up by 3 points: +0,02%. Same dynamics for the S&P500. The Nasdaq gained 0,1%, for a seventh consecutive session of gains.
Alibaba fell (-3,2%) after the Japanese financial company SoftBank announced that it had sold shares of the Chinese online commerce group for 7,9 billion dollars. Loses Nike (-2%), already queen of the Stock Exchange in 2015. Morgan Stanley has cut the recommendation to Equal Weight, the target price drops to $60 from $69. Analysts report that Nike is losing market share to Adidas.
The Beige Book helped to bring the market back up. The periodic survey on the situation of the 12 districts of the US economy certifies that growth is distributed throughout the country, even if no significant acceleration is underway in any region.
Other signs are contradictory: the decline in auto sales has been heavier than expected. General Motors (-3,5%) reported an 18% year-on-year decline in registrations in May. Ford also slows down: -2,8% against the slowdown in sales (-6% compared to a year ago). Much better sales of Fiat Chrysler (+1%).
Conversely, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 51,3 in May from 50,8 in April.
ARABIA INVESTS 3,5 BILLION IN UBER, OPEC SUMMIT TODAY
On the eve of the OPEC summit, just to underline the change of pace in Saudi policy desired by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's sovereign wealth fund announced an investment of 3,5 billion dollars in Uber, of which today Arabia (country where women cannot drive) is now the leading single shareholder. Saudi Arabia, which is about to launch a 15 billion dollar bond, thus aims to diversify its investments.
Other OPEC countries (Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, Iran) have more urgent problems: crude oil, traded just above 49 dollars this morning, remains too low for their needs. Today the cartel countries will consider the possibility of setting a ceiling on crude oil production. OPEC currently produces 32,5 million barrels a day (against the 30 billion envisaged by the agreement in force until last December) and any ceiling below this figure will represent an effective cut in production.
On the eve Chevron loses 1% while Brent oil marks a drop of 2,3%. Exxon Mobil -0,8%. In Piazza Affari Eni fell by 1,3%, Saipem -2,1%.
ECB, TODAY THE TLTRO PLAN AND THE NEW INFLATION SIMAS
No big news is expected at this morning's ECB meeting, but operators are awaiting the details of the launch of the new TLTRO, a credit purchase programme. Moreover, new inflation estimates will be published, which will rise thanks to the rise in oil, which has risen much more than expected by the Central Bank itself in March. "Draghi - comments Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia - has the thankless task of avoiding that the satisfaction for this welcome development translates into a sign of relaxation by the Governing Council with regard to the risk of deflation, which the market would interpret as a tightening of monetary policy" .
MILAN SLIPES AGAIN BELOW 18 THOUSAND
Yesterday the negative streak of the European markets continued, conditioned by an unstable political framework. London suffers (-0,62%) under the pressure of the imminent vote on Brexit, Paris does even worse (-0,67%), at risk of blackouts due to strikes against the labor law. Frankfurt falls by 0,57%. The worst stock exchange, once again, was Milan: the Ftse Mib index, under the pressure of the sales on the banks, confirmed its position as the rear, closing at -1,19%, at 17.810 points, breaking through the barrier of 18 thousand points.
The debt market also suffers. The Btp/Bund spread widened to 127 basis points under the weight of the banking sector. The ten-year BTP rises to 1,398% amid modest exchanges awaiting the ECB. Among the topics on the agenda is also the possibility of accepting Greek Treasury bonds again as collateral for zero-interest repurchase agreements. But it is probable that the decision will be postponed to a forthcoming summit.
LANDSCAPE BANCO POPOLARE: TODAY THE PRICE OF THE INCREASE (MAYBE 3 EURO)
Yesterday's meeting in Piazza Affari was dominated by the nightmare of capital increases by banks, increasingly at risk. Furthermore, to complicate the situation, it seems that the institutions have been notified by the Bank of Italy that the resolution fund would need another 1,5 billion euros to cover the difference between the probable proceeds from the sale of the four good banks and the shareholders' equity of the same (1,8 billion). A new tile just to worsen the already bad mood of the market, grappling with the confirmation of the lack of interest of investors in the capital increase of Veneto Banca.
At this point, to avoid the bankruptcy of the Montebelluna cooperative, the Atlante fund will have to intervene, as it has already done for Banca Popolare di Vicenza. This means that, barring the arrival of new investors, the resources that the fund led by Alessandro Penati will be able to deploy for the purchase of non-performing loans are dwindling.
Mostly Banco Popolare paid the price, closing the day with a loss of 6,2% after reaching an all-time low of 4,0640 euros. Today the institution's board of directors will set the issue price of the new shares in view of the capital increase (one billion) which will start on Monday 6 June. The option rights will be negotiable until day 22. According to rumors, the guarantee consortium supporting the recapitalization would be oriented towards applying a discount on the theoretical price prior to the detachment of the option right (TERP) of 30-32%. In this case, an offer price of less than 3 euros is not excluded.
The tensions on the Veneto banks are at the origin of the heavy losses of Banca Pop. Milan (-4,7%), destined for the merger with the Verona institute, but also of the possible partners of Veneto Banca: Ubi -2,5%, Pop. Emilia -4,3%. Banca Carige and Monte Paschi are also very heavy (-3,85%).
The target practice on Unicredit continues: -1,8% in closing after losing more than 4% slipping to the lows of the last four years at 2,7440 euros. In addition to the increasingly pressing shadow of a strong capital increase for the last Italian systemic bank, the discontent of many shareholders is growing around the institute for the selection mechanism for the replacement of CEO Federico Ghizzoni. The bank's top management decided yesterday to entrust Egon Zehnder with the task of "selecting the possible candidates to be presented to the Corporate Governance HR & Nomination Committee for the relevant assessments".
BUT INSTITUTIONALS QUEUE FOR THE GENERALI BOND
Not just banks. The crisis in the banking sector has not affected the collection capacity of the rest of finance. In particular Generali (-0,5%) successfully closed a subordinated bond issue for 850 million euro, aimed at institutional investors, which received orders from around 270 investors for a total of over 2,4 billion euro, equal to 2,8 times the offer. UnipolSai -1,7%.
Poste Italiane (-0,7%) has absorbed without repercussions the prospect of the next public offer (expected after the summer) of 29,7% of the capital as per government decree, an operation worth at least 2,7 billion euros. Weak, in asset management, Azimut-1,06%. From the communications to Consob on significant holdings, it emerges that Morgan Stanley has reduced its holding to 0,614% from 5,667%. The operation is dated May 25 last year.
FCA, SALES IN ITALY BOOM: +33%
It falls together with the Fiat Chrysler sector (-2,9%), despite the positive data on sales in France and Spain and the stability of US demand, where the group's truck offer did better than that of competitors such as Ford, General Motors and Volkswagen. Today the quotation could benefit from the impressive increase in sales on the Italian market communicated yesterday evening, with the Stock Exchange closed.
Le new car registrations they have in fact grown in the Bel Paese by 27,3%. However, Fiat Chrysler did better: last month compared to a year earlier at 187.631 units, with the FCA group +33,3%. In the first five months of the year, against a market increase of 20,51% to 875.778 cars, FCA recorded an increase of 23,8% to over 255.800 units.
Among other industrialists, Leonardo -1,8%, StM -0,5%, Prysmian -0,2%.
METROWEB, F2i PROMOTES ENEL. GRILLO FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE NETWORK
Metroweb is getting closer to Enel -0,8%. The F2i fund has mandated the managing director, Renato Ravanelli, to go ahead with the negotiations with the electricity company, exploring "the possible alternatives with Enel". That is, the fund could completely exit Metroweb, hold a share or the entire stake of 53,8% and therefore continue to be present in the ultra-broadband business together with Enel Open Fiber, which will take over the share of CDP. Telecom Italia advances by.4%. Beppe Grillo also took sides in favor of the split of the network from the former incumbent of the TLCs.
GREEN DISK OF BANKS IN RCS. FERRAGAMO PROMOTED BY BNP
Weak Luxury. In April, sales in the retail segment fell by 7,5%: Luxottica -1,3%, Yoox -2,3%. Ferragamo also fell back (-0,6%) despite Bnp Paribas confirming the positive Outperform recommendation, lowering the target to 25 euros.
Rcs +0,33% always above the values of the offer of Investindustrial and Cairo. The share accelerated at the end of the session after the notification of confirmation by all six lending banks of their adhesion to the restructuring of the loan agreement. The latest to sign is Bnp Paribas.
Recordati advances +1,66% after yesterday's announcement of the acquisition of 100% of the share capital of the pharmaceutical company Italchimica. Digital Bros was also a great protagonist yesterday with a gain of 14% which pushes the quotation to the highest levels of the year at 8,32 euros. In three sessions it has achieved a leap of 50%, eliminating the losses since the beginning of the year. It is the effect of the sale by the Italian company that creates, develops, publishes and distributes video games, of the rights to Payday to the Swedish Starbreez. At June 30, 2016, the agreement is expected to generate higher consolidated revenues of €25,5 million as well as higher gross profit of €22,5 million.
