According to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, in the next few years the growth rate of the emerging economies should stabilize at lower levels than those known in the past. Quantifying the effects of such a scenario for Italy appears complex. However, the data on international trade helps to highlight the sectors of the economy that could suffer the most. In 2014, Italian exports to emerging countries exceeded 90 billion euros.
China's share of total foreign sales stabilized at around 2,5%, the same value as Turkey and Russia, while India and Brazil are around 1%. For Italian exports, the role of advanced economies remains central, absorbing over 70% of the total. At the sectoral level, Italian exports to emerging countries appear concentrated, highlighting some elements of attention.
In 2014, these countries bought almost 30% of the total Italian machinery sold abroad. Furthermore, China, Turkey and OPEC together buy more than 10% of exports of means of transport, while Russia alone absorbs 7% of those of furniture and about 4% of those of clothing and footwear.
The slowdown of emerging markets could also produce indirect effects on the Italian economy, causing a worsening of conditions in the main outlet markets for our exports. China has become the third largest market for Germany's transportation industry. A slowdown in Chinese demand for German products could lead to lower demand from Germany for Italian sub-supplies. In 2014, exports of parts and accessories for means of transport produced in Italy exceeded 10 billion euros, with Germany's share exceeding 20%.
In Italy, the effects of the slowdown of emerging markets could also develop in a non-homogeneous manner at the territorial level. A lower demand for machinery could mainly penalize regions such as Lombardy, Emilia Romagna and Friuli Venezia Giulia. On the other hand, fewer purchases of clothing and footwear would affect the Marches and Tuscany more. While Abruzzo, Campania and Piedmont are the regions that have the greatest weight of means of transport in exports.
Attachments: Focus no. 33 – 02 October 2015.pdf
