In a particularly delicate phase of relations between the countries that make up the CIS and diplomatic relations between Russia and Western countries following the Ukraine crisis, the countries of the Customs Union last May signed an agreement in Minsk for the birth of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) on 1 January 2015 with the aim of strengthening institutional cooperation and economic integration of the countries of the region. The EAEU, which will replace the Eurasian Economic Community created in 2000, has announced that it will also join theArmenia.
As indicated by Intesa Sanpaolo, The Italian areas that export the most to the Eurasian Customs Union (BKR) are the North-East and the North-West. Together these two macro-divisions represent about three quarters of Italian exports on the BKR market, for one total value of 9,1 billion euros in 2013. In particular, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto stand out, by far the top three Italian regions for values exported to this market. Together these three regions export to the Customs Union just under 7,6 billion, 63% of the total. Most of these flows are directed to Russia which alone absorbs 2,8% of Italian exports, for a value of approximately 10,8 billion, 89,5% of the total exported to the BKR. From this brief overview it is clear how the Italian regions most present with export activities in the Eurasian Customs Union are precisely those characterized by a high district intensity. Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Marche and Abruzzo are, in fact, the regions most populated by supply chains and have aimportant production specialization in the mechanical, fashion system and furniture industries, i.e. in sectors where the demand for imported goods is more intense on the part of the Russian counterpart. About a third of the exports of the North East concern mechanical goods; following in importance the fashion system (23,4%), where clothing (16,3%) prevails over the leather supply chain (6,4%). In third place are the sectors of the home system (14,3%), with furniture in the lead (7,3%), followed by building products and materials (4,6%) and household appliances (2,3%) . Also in the North-West mechanical exports prevail (31,2%), followed, at a distance, by the fashion system (12,2%). However, this area also exports a lot of typically non-district goods to the Russian market, such as chemicals, motor vehicles and car components. In the Centre, on the other hand, the fashion system stands out, representing 27,6% of sales in this area in the BKR countries. In this sector the leather supply chain prevails and, more specifically, the footwear district of Fermo which over time has been able to conquer good shares on the Russian market, and the leather goods and footwear district of Florence which in the last two years has which doubled sales, which rose to 54 million euros in 2013 from 25,6 million in 2011. Also in the Centre, the weight of exports of mechanics (21,4%) and home system goods (15,3 %). The only macro-partition in which typically district sectors do not prevail is the South, where exports mainly concern motor vehicles (34,7%).
The propensity to export to the BKR countries, while growing, is still limited for the producers of intermediate goods in the fashion system, who discount the limited development of the local consumer goods industry, and for the food districts, which are also held back by the absence of Italian distribution chains in the territories of the Union. In the agro-food sector, only the wines of Langhe, Roero and Monferrato have achieved a good presence on these markets, with a level of exports that quickly rose to 64 million in 2013 (equal to 5,3% of the total exported) , from 47,6 million in 2012 and 31,5 million in 2010. The low propensity to export of food districts does not necessarily mean that they are not very present in BKR countries, given that some important food district companies market, for example, goods in Russia food produced on site at its own production plants. Furthermore, in recent years some districts of the food chain have stood out with brilliant performances on these markets. In addition to the wines of Langhe, Roero and Monferrato, the cured meats of the Modena area, the sweets of Alba and Cuneo and the food of Parma, the coffee, confectionery and chocolate of Turin, the meats and cured meats of Cremona and Mantua achieved good results.
The latest foreign trade data available show the sharp drop suffered by Italian exports to the BKR area during the first six months of 2014. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis, the weakness of Russian domestic demand and significant depreciation of the ruble they slowed down the affirmation of the Italian territories in the BKR countries. Most of the Italian regions most present on these markets have suffered significant drops in export value. In particular, the sharp decline suffered by Emilia Romagna stands out (-9,7% reduction in exports in the first half of 2014 compared to the same period of the previous year), which mainly affected mechanics and the fashion system, but also building products and materials and agri-food. Only a few regions that export relatively little to BKR countries continued to grow, these are Liguria (exports of general purpose machinery are good), Umbria (agro-food is growing) and Campania (agri-food is good). Among the most active regions in Russia, Veneto is the only one that has managed to contain losses (-1,5% trend change in the first half of 1), thanks to the good results achieved by pharmaceuticals and household appliances, which, at least in part, compensated for what was lost in other sectors. Both in Russia and in Ukraine, exports of districts already dropped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2014, to then undergo a real collapse on the Ukrainian market between April and June (-2014%). In the first six months of the year as a whole, district exports suffered a drop of 8,5% in Russia and 19,3% in Ukraine. The losses for total Italian manufacturing were a little more accentuated, above all in Ukraine (-25,3%; -8,8% in Russia).
Despite the losses suffered in Ukraine and Russia, but also in Belarus (-3,2% in the first half of 2014) and Kazakhstan (-19,1%), however, Italian industrial districts continued to grow on foreign markets. Once again the overall export performance of Italian districts was better than the average of Italian manufacturing (+4,2% against +1,6%). These results acquire even more value if we consider that the weight of these markets is higher for the district areas than for the Italian manufacturing as a whole. This means that the districts, in addition to showing greater signs of resilience on the BKR markets and in the Ukraine, have matured better performances in some important commercial destinations (UK, Spain, Switzerland above all). Therefore we can say that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has slowed down but not interrupted the growth of exports of industrial districts. Quite a few districts among those most exposed to the Russian market have, in fact, recorded an overall increase in exports. Among the twenty districts most affected by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis are those where the weight of the Russian market is high. In particular, footwear from Fermo stands out (about a quarter of exports from this district are directed to Russia and Ukraine), which in the first half of 2014 saw flows exported to Russia and Ukraine drop to 120 million, 40 million less than the same period last year. Losses incurred on these markets have not been compensated for elsewhere. Seven other districts have failed to grow due to the diplomatic crisis: these are instrumental mechanics in Brescia, leather tanning machines in Vigevano, kitchens in Pesaro, South-Abruzzo clothing, cured meats in the Modena area, textile and clothing in Treviso and industrial refrigerators in Casale Monferrato. Conversely, the other twelve districts managed to grow despite the losses reported on the Russian-Ukrainian market. In particular, they stand out by growth intensity, food machinery in Parma, tiles in Sassuolo, instrumental mechanics in Vicenza, furniture in Livenza and Quartier del Piave, footwear in San Mauro Pascoli and fruit and vegetables in Romagna. Among these, the exceptional performance of the footwear of San Mauro Pascoli should be noted which, after the clothing of Rimini, is the district most present in these markets (28,3% of its exports are directed to Russia and Ukraine). Companies in this area have overcome the losses suffered in Russia (-9,4% in the first half of 2014) and Ukraine (-16,5%) managing to seize the growth opportunities present in the USA (+41,9%), France (+13%), United Kingdom (+48,7%), Hong Kong (+51,1%) and China (+24,9 %).
