The data released last week by Eurostat on the trend of European Union exports in the first 5 months of 2012 make us breathe a sigh of relief: at least in this sector things for the old continent are not going so badly, and for Italy the data are even more comforting.
First of all the general data: in the period January-May 2012 the surplus of the EU trade balance improved compared to the same period of 2011. The general contraction of domestic consumption (and therefore the drop in imports) and the weakening of the euro contributed to this positive balance. Among the countries that have increased their exports the most are the Netherlands (+7%), followed by Germany and Italy (+4%) and France (+3%). The largest EU exporters are Germany (454,8 billion € in the period considered), the Netherlands (211,6 billion, however also due to the presence in the Netherlands of many NV and BV holdings from other EU countries), the France (185 billion), Italy (160,8 billion), the United Kingdom (153,3 billion) and Belgium (147,8 billion). Germany and the Netherlands are also at the top of the ranking of countries that boast a substantial trade balance surplus (respectively 74,7 and 20,4 billion €). In one year, Italy decreased its deficit of this balance by 80%, which went from 18,2 billion. to 2,6 billion. €, despite the increased cost (in terms of euros) of the energy bill. This figure was influenced by the significant balance surplus for non-energy products (+25,5 billion €, tripled compared to the 5 months of 2011). France and the United Kingdom, on the other hand, are still in a strong trade balance deficit (-36,1 and -60,9 billion € respectively); in particular, the British deficit significantly worsened compared to the first 5 months of 2011 (from 43,8 to 60,9 billion €). And to think that these are the only two countries, among those mentioned, in theory almost self-sufficient from an energy point of view.
Coming to Italy, at least in this field the data bode well for a return to recovery in the not too distant future. These data confirm what has already been written in the ICE Report of last July (for whose comment we refer in the article “ICE Report 2011-2012: current and future perspectives on the Italian economy ", while the documentation is published in the "documents" section of the Export Service, Current Studies and Interviews). That is that in our country, despite everything, even despite the cuts in export incentives, exports are the only driving force for the economy; that our companies, even our SMEs, succeed more than others in exploiting the flow of purchases from emerging countries, replacing it with the stagnant one coming from within the European Union; and furthermore, that our companies have been able to fully exploit their role as sub-suppliers of the large export-oriented German companies, particularly in the industrial mechanical sector.
We conclude with a quote from the ICE Report, which seems to encompass the contribution that the government can make to act on this lever:
"A further effort is needed, which cannot be separated from a national program of
development policy. Starting from the existing strengths (instrumental mechanics,
qualified segments of the Made in Italy, food, architectural and engineering services, etc.),
a work of consolidation and diversification of the economic structure is needed, of
redefinition of the Italian position in the new "international division of labour",
shaped by global production networks, in directions more consistent with the trends of the scenario
and with business potential.
It is not a question of returning to the dirigiste illusions of the remote past, but there is a need for one
shared view of investment prospects and should be used consistently e
concentrate the tools available. This implies inter alia convergence between different policies.
It has already been evident for some time, also in the attribution of ministerial competences, that the
policies to support the internationalization of businesses are an integral part of
industrial policies. Their innovative dimension needs to be further enhanced: i
organizational changes necessary for companies to have access and success on the markets
foreign countries should be considered (and facilitated) as technological innovations.”
