With the start of 2020, the international scenario remains characterized by numerous risks of a political and economic nature. The tensions between the USA and Iran, the persistent difficulties in various geographies of the Middle East, theuncertainty in trade relations between Washington and Beijing, the ongoing protests in Hong Kong and some Latin American countries, as well as doubts about the future structure of relations between the UK and the EU, not to mention the Chinese virus, have contributed to an increase in uncertainty and are affecting the choices of economic operators at a global level. Overall, global growth has slowed, estimated at 2,5% in 2019, the lowest increase recorded in the last decade. In the first ten months of 2019 there was also a contraction in the volume of global trade of 0,6%. Numerous factors have influenced this and the negative effect of the trade war has been identified as the main risk to global economic growth. Moreover, China's more moderate growth weighed on this balance.
In this scenario, how should not be underestimated The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has intensified the pace and scope of China's foreign policy since 2013, and nowhere else in the world has it been as evident as in the Middle East, where economic and political relations with the governments of individual countries have almost always been included in real bilateral agreements of strategic partnership. To date, 11 countries in the area have signed agreements with Beijing: in this sense, the BRI not only promotes global trade and connectivity, but also paves the way for new fronts in bilateral relations, increasing the possibilities for cooperation and influence on the part of Beijing. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported about 2018 million tons of oil in 462, almost half of which came from the MENA area, making it the main trading partner of 11 Middle Eastern countries, including Iran.
However, Chinese interests in the region go beyond hydrocarbon exchanges involving the sectors of energy, industry, finance, transport, communications and technology. China isIn fact, become an increasingly important player in supporting economic diversification programs in Gulf economies. Chinese firms are active in solar, wind and hydroelectric projects in the Middle East, where development strategies such as Saudi Arabia's “Vision 2030” have prioritized the diversification of energy sources. Thus, bilateral trade with China in the region doubled to almost $163 billion in the decade to 2018 and is expected to grow further in the coming years, making China the main economic and trading partner of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
Despite the worsening global macroeconomic environment, the value of Italian exports of goods continued at a positive pace also in 2019, with a growth of 2,1% between January and November compared to the same period of the previous year. The exporters of the Bel Paese have been able to compensate for the contraction in sales in some important destination markets (such as China, Turkey, Mexico and Tunisia) by increasing activity in more mature markets, such as Japan, the USA and Switzerland. The "stock effect" triggered by Brexit also played a role in the performance of Italian exports: British businesses and consumers have in fact anticipated imports from Italy to avoid any barriers that would be reintroduced in the event of a hard Brexit. In 2019 pharmaceuticals, textiles and clothing and food and beverages were the leading sectors of Italian exports with very positive performances on European and non-European markets (for example France, Japan, USA and Asean markets). In particular, sales of pharmaceutical goods were supported, on the one hand, by emerging countries with a developing health system (India); on the other, from advanced countries characterized by an increasingly elderly population and greater attention to prevention (Austria, Germany, USA). According to the Sace forecasts, in 2020 Italian exports are expected to grow by 2,8%, while for the two-year period 2021-22 an improvement in the sales of goods abroad is assumed up to 3,7%, annual average.
